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The Ethereum price looks set to end 2025 with a double-digit loss, but its start to the new year appears to be the more worrying subject. A prominent on-chain analyst has identified crucial price levels that could decide ETH’s future in the next few months.
In a new post on the social media platform X, Alphractal CEO and founder Joao Wedson warned the market of the potential risk of seeing the Ethereum price below the $2,000 mark again. According to the on-chain analytics expert, the price of ETH is currently holding on to three critical on-chain support levels.
Firstly, Wedson highlighted that the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) Z-Score, which offers insights into when an asset is overvalued or undervalued, suggests that the Ethereum price is sitting exactly on its final support cushion. According to the crypto founder, a failure of this level could see the price of ETH suffer an aggressive downside move.
Wedson also mentioned that the Market Cap Growth Rate, which reflects the real expansion of Ethereum’s market capitalization over time, is testing a critical structural support level. The Alphractal CEO revealed that breaking below this support would suggest weakening capital inflows, signaling the potential imminence of downside pressure.
Additionally, the crypto analyst noted that the Delta Growth Rate, a metric that measures the divergence between Realized Cap growth and Market Cap growth, which generates an on-chain alpha signal, is also at support. “A loss of this level would suggest speculative capital exiting the market, increasing the likelihood of a future capitulation phase,” Wedson added.
According to the crypto pundit, there is a huge likelihood that the Ethereum price falls below the $2,000 mark if these on-chain foundations break. An over 30% correction from the current price point is even more probable as supply pressure increases against declining demand heading into the new year.
The blockchain firm founder didn’t dismiss the idea of taking a long position in the Ethereum market at the current price levels, especially for investors with a higher risk appetite. At the same time, Wedson stated that the Ethereum price remains in a fragile position from a broader outlook.
The price of Ethereum is currently down by more than 40% from its all-time high of $4,946. This record reflects the struggles of the second-largest cryptocurrency — and perhaps the broader market — in the final quarter of 2025. As of this writing, ETH is valued at around $2,940, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours.
