Standard Chartered has updated its long-term crypto projections, and its revised ethereum price forecast now stretches out to 2030 with a far higher peak.
In a new research note, Standard Chartered set a fresh end-2030 target of $40,000 for Ethereum (ETH), even as it sharply lowered its end-2026 goal. However, the bank stressed that Ethereum’s relative position in the digital asset market is improving, despite Bitcoin-led weakness dragging down absolute levels for dollar-denominated crypto.
The note, authored by the bank’s digital assets analyst Geoff Kendrick, frames 2026 as a possible turning point in the ETH versus Bitcoin relationship. Kendrick revised down the bank’s medium-term ETH-USD path, but argued that Ethereum’s competitive setup looks stronger against BTC. Moreover, he expects the ETH/BTC cross to gradually climb back toward its 2021 highs.
According to Kendrick, the core expression of this thesis is a rebound in the ETH/BTC pair rather than a straight-line surge in the spot ETH price. That said, he maintains that improving fundamentals and network usage trends should ultimately support higher valuations into the next cycle.
The analyst attributes the near-term markdown primarily to Bitcoin’s drag on the broader crypto complex. Weaker BTC action, he wrote, has “weighed on the outlook for digital assets priced in dollars,” forcing lower absolute targets through 2028. Nevertheless, the bank believes Ethereum’s relative fundamentals versus Bitcoin are strengthening heading into the next cycle.
Kendrick highlighted a cluster of Ethereum-specific supports that he expects to show up more clearly in relative performance metrics than in immediate spot-price gains. In particular, he cited continued accumulation by Bitmine Immersion Technologies, described in the note as the largest Ethereum-focused digital asset treasury company.
This corporate Ethereum treasury accumulation is occurring at a time when ETF inflows have “temporarily stalled” and broader corporate crypto treasury buying has cooled. However, Kendrick argues that such focused accumulation strengthens the investment case for Ethereum over the medium term, especially if exchange-traded flows reaccelerate later.
He also underscored Ethereum’s role as core infrastructure for stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and DeFi. These segments remain key structural demand drivers. Moreover, he emphasized ongoing execution on Ethereum throughput improvement plans at the layer-1 level, with aims to increase base-chain capacity by roughly 10x over the next two to three years.
“Analysis shows that higher throughput translates into higher market cap,” Kendrick wrote, linking scaling progress directly to valuation. That said, he cautioned that these improvements may first manifest in stronger relative returns versus Bitcoin rather than in an immediate repricing of ETH in dollar terms.
Regulation was flagged as another potential tailwind for Ethereum and the broader digital asset sector. Kendrick pointed to the US CLARITY Act as a development that could be particularly important if it unlocks a new phase of DeFi activity and gives investors clearer signals around ethereum regulation policy impact.
The US Senate is scheduled to review the bill on Jan. 15, with possible passage in Q1. Moreover, a favorable outcome could boost confidence in Ethereum’s role at the center of on-chain finance, especially for stablecoin issuance and tokenized assets. However, the note stresses that regulatory timing and final wording remain uncertain.
For traders, Kendrick’s framework suggests that the cleanest expression of the bank’s thesis is not a short-term bet on a specific ETH-USD level. Instead, the focus is on whether Ethereum can regain lost ground versus Bitcoin as throughput, stablecoin-heavy activity and policy clarity accumulate into 2026 and beyond.
In other words, the primary call is on cross-asset performance rather than on a narrow twelve-month target. That said, the note implies that if the projected improvements materialize, the ethereum price path toward $40,000 by 2030 becomes more plausible, especially once Bitcoin’s current drag on the sector eases.
At press time, ETH traded at $3,126, far below Standard Chartered’s long-term projections but, in the bank’s view, supported by strengthening network fundamentals and an improving relative setup in the crypto market.
In summary, Standard Chartered has cut its medium-term ETH targets while lifting its end-2030 projection, arguing that Ethereum’s strengthening role in DeFi, stablecoins and tokenization, combined with scaling and potential regulatory catalysts, could set the stage for renewed outperformance versus Bitcoin from 2026 onward.
