Ethereum price stays bearish unless it closes above $3,170, with upside opening toward $3,656 and downside risk growing if $3,056 fails.
The Ethereum price is slightly red today, near $3,013, down about 1.8%, while Bitcoin stays marginally green. The underperformance is not new. Ethereum has also dropped nearly 23% this month, again weaker than Bitcoin.
There is a fresh reversal attempt on the chart, but this setup has already failed once. It will likely fail again unless one key level finally breaks.
A clean bullish divergence has formed between Nov. 4 and Nov. 19. The price made a lower low, but the RSI, a momentum indicator that measures whether price moves are strong or weak, made a higher low. Divergences like this often appear before a trend flip because RSI turns earlier than price.
Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.
But Ethereum showed the same signal earlier, from Nov. 4 to Nov. 17, and it still failed. Both reversal attempts ran into the same wall: $3,170. The chart is flashing the right signal, but the structure behind it is not supportive yet.
Long-term holders are not backing the bounce. The Hodler Net Position Change, which tracks wallet flows of investors, remains negative. On Nov. 18, long-term holders were already net-negative by 524,819 ETH, but that number widened to 583,171 ETH on Nov. 19.
That means another 58,352 ETH — around $175 million at current prices — moved into selling pressure within 24 hours. Until this shifts, any RSI-based reversal stays fragile.
The cost-basis heatmap, the indicator showing key supply clusters, explains the rest. The strongest supply block in months sits between $3,150 and $3,170, holding about 2.69 million ETH. This zone is highlighted in orange on the heatmap and has rejected every attempt to move higher. This is also the zone where the previous divergence attempt failed on Nov. 17.
With long-term holders selling and a heavy supply wall stacked above the price, the Ethereum price reversal setup keeps getting crushed before it can play out.
The Ethereum price continues to trade inside a descending channel. The 0.382 Fibonacci level at $3,170 lines up perfectly with the same resistance cluster. This means $3,170 is not just a chart level — it is the structural pivot for the entire trend.
Unless Ethereum posts a daily close above $3,170, every bounce will remain temporary, and the trend stays bearish.
If the breakout finally happens, the next target is $3,656, the upper Fibonacci zone where momentum can reset. Until then, price is vulnerable to another sweep of the lower channel range. Also, failure to cross $3,170 and the inability to hold $3,056 could push the Ethereum price to the channel’s lower boundary.
