Gas usage is climbing, leverage is balanced, and liquidation maps show a short squeeze could trigger a sharp move higher.
After a strong rally earlier this year, Ethereum price briefly went through a cooling-off phase, trading sideways and shaking out the noise.
But under the surface, something’s brewing. Supply is thinning, whales are accumulating, and activity on-chain is heating up again.
At the time of writing, the coin was trading near $3720 after a 3.77% hike in a day. While ETH hasn’t broken out yet, the data says it’s only a matter of time. Here’s what every trader should know before things get loud again.
Let’s start with where the Ethereum price is going. It’s not heading to exchanges; it’s leaving them.
Over the last few days, five fresh wallets have scooped up nearly 106,000 ETH worth $397M, with a big chunk withdrawn from Kraken alone.
These wallets didn’t dollar-cost average; they barged in, mostly via OTC desks like FalconX, which suggests institutional action.
This ties in with the latest ETF data. In just 24 hours, treasury desks and funds bought over 382,000 ETH, while issuance was just 2,473. That’s a supply crunch in real-time; more ETH is being locked up than created.
On top of that, the netflow chart is flashing bright red. Weekly flows show persistent outflows; a sign that holders are moving their ETH off exchanges and into cold wallets, preparing for the long haul.
Together, these flows mean there’s less ETH available for trading. And when supply shrinks while demand stays strong, prices tend to go up. It’s the classic fuel for a supply shock.
Price isn’t the only thing that matters; what’s happening on-chain tells you whether ETH is being used or just traded. Lately, that activity is ramping up.
Gas usage is climbing again, reaching over 149 million units daily. That means more people are using Ethereum; for DeFi, NFTs, gaming, you name it.
High gas isn’t just a fee issue; it’s a sign of growth.
Funding rates also show that there’s no crazy leverage buildup. Rates are still low (0.011%), which means this move isn’t leverage-driven.
Traders aren’t maxed out on longs, so if ETH does rally, it won’t be one of those pump-and-dump moves that fade fast.
Finally, long/short liquidations are almost even: about $5.01B long vs. $5.3B short. That shows balance.
The market isn’t overly tilted in one direction, which leaves room for a clean breakout if spot buying continues.
ETH price is still dancing around $3,622, holding just above the 0.786 Fibonacci level at $3,635. That’s our immediate support; lose it, and ETH could slide toward $3,371 or even $3,263.
But if it holds, there’s a clear upside path: the 1.618 Fib level at $4,402, and then $5,324 for the next extension. That’s the 47% potential rally.
The chart from analyst @TedPillows shows Ethereum price has yet to break into the so-called “banana zone,” a steep ascending channel where rallies go vertical.
He expects one more consolidation phase before ETH punches through $4,100. If that happens, we could see a violent move higher, especially with all that leverage stacked on the short side.
As the liquidation map shows, shorts above $3,700 are heavily exposed. A push above $3,800-$4,000 could trigger a cascade of short liquidations: forced buys that fuel the next leg up.
The fact that leverage isn’t overcrowded means there’s still plenty of fuel left in the tank.
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