NUPL and exchange flows confirm weak hands are gone and buyers are stepping in.
Ethereum price is showing signs of strength after the US Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% yesterday. The cut was expected and already priced in by the market, so most assets barely moved. But Ethereum stood out. Over the last 24 hours, it has gained about 2.2% and is trading above $4,600.
More importantly, the charts show Ethereum forming a “cup and handle” setup with a few clicks under the breakout zone. If this move holds, the breakout points to a new target near $5,430. At the same time, on-chain data reveals that selling pressure has fallen to a six-month low, giving more weight to the bullish breakout.
The clearest sign of reduced selling came from the “Spent Coins Age Band.” This metric tracks how many coins are leaving wallets to be sold on the blockchain. When the number falls, it means fewer holders are cashing out.
On September 17, the total number of coins spent across all bands stood at about 257,000 ETH. By today, that number had dropped to just 42,700 ETH, a fall of almost 83.5% and the lowest level in six months.
Such a steep drop suggests that many holders who could have sold are instead holding back. This sharp reduction in supply pressure gives the ETH price more room to move higher if demand continues to build.
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The sharp fall in spent coins is not alone. Two other on-chain metrics — NUPL and exchange flows — show the same direction.
NUPL, or Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, tracks how many wallets are showing paper profits or losses. On September 16, NUPL made a local low. It has since curled up to above $0.50, now at almost the same level as seen on September 11. This pattern led Ethereum’s price to rise close to 6% then.
A dip in NUPL at higher price levels means fewer wallets are sitting on easy profits. That usually happens because short-term traders might have already sold, leaving behind stronger holders who are less likely to sell their coins during every rally.
This view is backed by exchange net position change, which shows whether coins are moving into or out of exchanges. More coins on exchanges often mean more selling, while outflows mean accumulation.
Since September 14, outflows have grown from about -147,600 ETH to -159,000 ETH, an 8% rise. This confirms that more Ethereum is leaving trading platforms, a sign of steady buying pressure.
These trends reveal the same story: weak hands are out, selling pressure is fading, and buyers are quietly taking control.
Ethereum has now broken out of a bullish cup-and-handle formation. Breaking out of the handle often means that selling pressure has eased because short-term holders who were selling into rallies are mostly gone.
The neckline of this pattern sits near $4,765. If the Ethereum price closes above that line, the breakout target stretches toward $5,430, which would be a fresh yearly high.
Another key sign is the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether money is moving into or out of the market. CMF has climbed from -0.18 on September 15 and is now close to the zero line as the handle breakout happened. If it crosses into positive territory, it would confirm that new money is entering alongside the chart breakout.
Support remains firm at $4,489 and $4,424. If Ethereum falls below $4,213, the bullish setup would be invalidated, and buyers may need to wait for a new pattern to form.
