Ethereum price bounced almost 10% from this week’s lows near $2,600, and the price is up about 1% today. The move looks positive, but the recovery may not last.
Two major bearish signals have emerged simultaneously. Together, they threaten to end the bounce before it grows.
Two connected signals now point to deeper weakness.
The first comes from long-term investors, often called hodlers. These are wallets that usually hold ETH for more than 155 days. When hodlers increase their selling, it usually shows fear or a shift in long-term belief.
On November 22, net selling from these wallets was about 334,600 ETH. On November 23, it jumped to 1,027,240 ETH — a 300% spike in one day. This is a major exit from long-term holders and adds heavy supply at a time when ETH already trades in a broader downtrend.
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At the same time, a death cross has almost formed. A death cross appears when the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) drops under the 200-day EMA. An EMA gives more weight to recent prices, so it reacts faster than a simple moving average.
When the 50-day EMA crosses below the 200-day, it signals strong downward momentum. That could hit the ETH prices significantly if the selling pressure continues to rise.
Here is the key connection:
Hodler selling is rising sharply at the exact moment the EMA structure is turning bearish. That means the selling pressure is reinforcing the death-cross signal instead of slowing it down. When these two appear together, recoveries usually fail and prices retest lower supports.
Ethereum now trades near $2,820, but the chart shows more pressure above than support below.
The first level ETH must defend is $2,710, the 0.786 Fibonacci zone. Losing this level opens a drop toward $2,450, which marks roughly a 13% downside from current levels. If the death cross completes while hodler selling continues, ETH can fall directly toward this level and even under it if the market conditions weaken.
Below $2,452, the next deeper support sits near $1,700 — the broader extension from the descending structure. This only activates if the trend accelerates and sellers remain dominant.
Upside remains limited unless the ETH price can reclaim:
Under current conditions, hitting these levels looks difficult because both bearish signals — the surge in hodler selling and the death-cross setup — remain active.
