After hitting its latest all-time high of $4,956 on August 23 on Binance, Ethereum (ETH) has been trading in a tight range – oscillating between $4,200 to $4,500 – giving little clues about its next potential direction. However, recent exchange data suggest that a supply crunch may be nearing for ETH.
According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, during the period between August 16 to September 3, Ethereum’s Binance Exchange Supply Ratio (ESR) saw a sharp decline.
Although ETH’s price has remained in the mid $4,000 range, its ESR tumbled from 0.041 to 0.037 – marking the biggest decline within the observed period – in a matter of just two weeks.
It’s worth highlighting that ETH’s price has remained stable all this time, trading close to $4,400 at the end of the period. According to the CryptoQuant analyst, such price behavior can explain two things.
First, it signals that investors are withdrawing from exchanges – including Binance – at an accelerated pace. Further, it also shows growing confidence among ETH holders as they opt for self-custody in cold wallets instead of keeping their holdings on exchanges.
Arab Chain remarked that a combination of stable price, declining exchange supply, and healthy exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows confirms that sellable supply is dwindling while the demand for the digital asset remains strong. They added:
Declines in ESR have historically preceded strong upward moves, as lower exchange liquidity limits sellers’ ability to push prices down. The current ESR levels have fallen back to pre-June figures, suggesting that the market has effectively “flushed out” previous profit-taking activity and is now reaccumulating supply into long-term wallets.
The analyst concluded by saying that if ETH’s ESR continues to fall without a corresponding decline in price, then it would mean that the market is entering a new, institutional investor-led bull cycle. Three metrics in particular support this prediction.
The ETH market has seen a recent drop in leverage, meaning there are fewer traders with speculative positioning. Further, most perpetual futures markets show neutral funding rates for ETH contracts. Finally, the on-chain activity by ETH whales has also subsided, meaning long-term holders are not selling.
Also worth noting is that the Ethereum blockchain’s fundamentals continue to improve. Latest data shows that as much as 36 million ETH has been staked on the ETH network, further raising the possibility of an ensuing supply shock.
Recently, Ethereum daily transactions also hit a 12-month high. Amid these bullish developments, seasoned industry experts are not shying away from giving ambitious ETH price predictions. At press time, ETH trades at $4,295, down 1.7% in the past 24 hours.
