Goodbye “red September,” hello “Uptober.” As the bullish vibes return to the crypto market, traders appear to be setting their sights on risk assets beyond just Bitcoin, with Ethereum and Solana — two of the largest altcoins by market capitalization — each rising 5% today. So where are traders most likely to place their bets next?
The month that traditionally punishes crypto investors ended up delivering a 3.5% gain for the total market cap, defying the doomsayers who predicted blood in the streets based on historical data. Now October has arrived — what traders call “Uptober” for its historically bullish performance — and the hunt for new positions is on.
Two of crypto’s most important altcoins have become the center of intense speculation as permabulls pound the table for new all-time highs. Ethereum and Solana, the twin giants of smart contract platforms, are both within striking distance of their record prices. But which gets there first?
Prediction markets have spoken, and they’re split.
On one side, users on Myriad — a prediction market built by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan — say there’s a 62% chance Ethereum will reach $5,000, a new all-time high price, before it drops to $3,500. It’s an overwhelming confidence that reflects simple mathematics. ETH needs less than 15% to hit new heights from its current $4,144.89 price. Interestingly, these odds are way up from just last Friday, when Myriad predictors gave ETH just a 32% chance of reaching a new record price.
Solana tells a different story. Traders on Myriad have set the line at 52.4% that SOL does not mark a new all-time high by the end of this year. And this skepticism also makes sense: Solana sits at $210.95, requiring a 34.12% surge to reach its $295.11 peak. That’s a much steeper mountain to climb, compounded by uncertainty regarding if and when Solana ETFs hit Wall Street and historically lower institutional adoption. These odds have been trending in the opposite direction from the Ethereum market on Myriad, with users having previously given SOL a 67% chance of hitting a new high as recently as two weeks ago.
To figure out which coin wins the race, we turned to Fibonacci fans rather than the standard retracements most traders use. Here’s the difference: retracements tell you price levels — where support and resistance live. Fans add time into the mix, projecting not just where price goes but when it should get there.
Think of retracements as saying, “The coin should stop at this level.” Fans instead say, “The coin should reach this level by this date if the trend holds.” For a race between two assets, that timing component changes everything. The fans draw diagonal trendlines from swing lows, creating a roadmap that factors in both price targets and the calendar.
