Not much has changed in Ethereum’s price (-8.7%) since our last public update from almost three weeks ago (see here), when we showed the cryptocurrency is most likely in a larger 4th wave. See Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. Our preferred long-term EW count for Ethereum.
Specifically, our preferred long-term Elliott Wave Principle (EW) analysis indicates that Ether is in the final upward move from its April 2025 low: the black Wave-5. Since impulses consist of five waves (red W-i, ii, iii, iv, v) and only four have occurred so far, as in this case, we count down months as corrective 2nd and 4th waves; at least one more wave (red W-v) is still “necessary.” The ideal target zone for W-v is $6921 to $9159, while a simple symmetry breakout measurement targets $6150.
So, what has happened over the past three weeks? Not much, as the price of Ethereum has been acting erratically. This often suggests, in this case, a smaller 4th wave. See the gray “W-iv?” in Figure 2 below.
Figure 2. Our preferred short-term EW count for Ethereum.
However, with the added price action, we can now see that a potential bull flag is forming, targeting ideally $6600. Since fourth waves can take many different forms, they are the least predictable part of an impulse. For example, a simple zigzag (a three-wave, a-b-c, move) can suffice, but it can also turn into a double zigzag (two three-wave moves) or a flat (a 3-3-5 move: a zigzag down, then a zigzag back up, followed by an impulse back down), and any combination of these. Since we can’t predict the future, we must acknowledge that “after three waves lower, always expect at least three waves back up,” because there’s no guarantee that the correction isn’t over yet.
Therefore, although the correction has taken quite a while, nothing concerning has happened. In fact, it’s still typical 4th wave behavior. So, while ETHUSD might still look for a lower price for its 4th wave, with support around $3350, it seems the correction is nearing its end and a final rally is still likely. Only a break below $2880 would seriously make us question its potential for $ 6,150+.
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