10x Research analyst Markus Thielen sees risk of a slide to $2,700-$2,800 as ETF flows, retail and digital asset treasury demand collapse.
Ethereum’s ether ETH$3,241.21 just tumbled more than 20% by Tuesday in a two-day rout that almost look like the October 10 crash.
Trading just below $4,000 early Monday, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap tumbled to nearly $3,000 by Tuesday afternoon U.S. hours, touching its weakest level since mid-July. That’s the second severe correction in a month, as the October 10 flash crash took ETH to $3,440 from just shy of $4,500 a day before, a 25% nosedive.
ETH was recently trading just above $3,200 after a modest bounce, still down 9.4% over the past 24 hours.
The sharp drop triggered over $970 million in liquidations across leveraged ETH derivatives markets, according to CoinGlass data. Most of those positions were long — traders betting on higher prices — wiped out as ETH sliced through support zones one after another.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, warned in a Tuesday note that ETH’s breakdown leaves little support below and more room to fall.
BitMine, the largest ETH treasury firm that has been steady buying the asset over the past months, appears to be fully tapped out with limited ability to bid for ETH, Thielen said.
BitMine accumulated nearly 3.4 million ETH, with Thielen estimating the firm’s cost-basis at around $3,909, which would mean the firm sitting on around $2 billions in unrealized losses.
“While there’s no immediate liquidation risk, the real concern is who will be the next incremental buyer of ETH now that BitMine appears to have exhausted its firepower,” Thielend said.
ETF demand has also faded. Inflows hit $9.5 billion in July and August as BitMine ramped up purchases, but have since dried up, Thielen noted. Only $850 million has exited ETH ETFs since the October crash, leaving room for more selling as many ETF investors are now underwater at the current prices levels.
Retail interest has also collapsed, Thielen said. Google search trends, a rough proxy for retail demand, for Ethereum are down to 13% of their peak.
With all the catalysts that fueled ETH’s rally to nearly $5,000 in August now vanished, Thielen sees the $2,700-$2,800 range as the next likely landing zone.
