Ethereum has once again faced strong rejection from the key supply zone between 4,940-5,272 (Fib 0.5-0.618), signaling heavy selling pressure at this multi-year resistance area.
Price action now points toward a potential retracement into the major demand zone (yellow block) between 3,950-3,520, where the next directional move is likely to be decided.
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📊 Key Technical Structure
Major Supply Zone: 4,940 – 5,272 (Fib 0.5-0.618)
Minor Support: 4,120
Primary Demand Zone (Yellow Block): 3,950 – 3,520
Next Supports (if broken): 3,210 → 2,132
Bullish Fibonacci Targets: 6,345 → 8,082 → 10,891
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📈 Bullish Scenario — “Reclaim & Expansion”
ETH still maintains a macro structure of higher-highs and higher-lows on the weekly timeframe.
As long as the 3,520 support holds, the broader trend remains bullish.
A strong rebound from 3,950-3,520 followed by a weekly close above 5,272 would confirm bullish continuation and open up:
Target 1: 6,345 (Fib 1.0)
Target 2: 8,082 (Fib 1.618)
Target 3: 10,891 (Fib 2.618 — potential cycle top)**
The key confirmation for bulls is a weekly reclaim above 5,272 with volume.
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📉 Bearish Scenario — “Breakdown & Deeper Retracement”
If the selling pressure continues and ETH closes below 3,520, the bullish structure will be invalidated.
Such a breakdown could trigger a deeper retracement toward:
3,210 (Fib 0.618 confluence)
2,132-1,955 (deeper structural retracement)
Failure to defend the yellow block would shift ETH into a lower-high / lower-low structure, signaling a medium-term trend reversal.
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🔍 Market Context
ETH is currently retesting the same macro resistance zone that marked the all-time high area in 2021.
The rejection at 5K highlights that supply remains dominant in this region, while the 3,950-3,520 demand block now serves as the key battlefield for bulls and bears.
As long as the yellow block holds, this pullback can still be considered a healthy correction within a macro uptrend.
But if it breaks, the market may enter a prolonged consolidation phase before the next cycle begins.
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📍 Summary
Ethereum stands at a major inflection point:
Bullish Case: Bounce from 3,950-3,520 and reclaim 5,272 → targets 6.3K – 8K – 10.8K
Bearish Case: Breakdown below 3,520 → deeper correction to 3.21K or even 2.13K
The 3,950-3,520 demand zone is the final defense for ETH’s mid-term bullish structure — hold it, and the trend continues; lose it, and momentum fades.
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