Standard Chartered has increased its base-case forecast for Ethereum ETH/USD to $7,500 by the end of 2025, citing stronger-than-expected demand from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and heightened on-chain activity.
What Happened: The new projection comes less than two months after the bank outlined an $8,000-$9,000 bull case, which it now frames as upside potential rather than the central scenario.
In a note to clients, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of FX Research West and Digital Assets Research, said, “We think Ethereum will continue to benefit from the positive feedback loop between price, on-chain activity, and investor inflows.”
He added that the updated forecast reflects “higher-than-expected ETF inflows and stronger on-chain activity.”
The revision follows a period of accelerating institutional inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs.
Data from SoSo Value shows that on Aug. 12 alone, the funds recorded $524 million in net inflows, marking six consecutive days of gains.
BlackRock’s ETHA ETF accounted for $319 million of that total.
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs also drew $65.94 million on the day, extending their own streak to five days.
Standard Chartered now estimates ETF holdings could reach between 2.39 million and 9.15 million ETH by the end of 2025, equivalent to 2%-8% of the circulating supply.
Such accumulation could tighten market liquidity and amplify price movements, especially when combined with staking.
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Kendrick noted the potential for a “super-squeeze” if ETF inflows and staking remove more supply from circulation than expected.
Why It Matters: Ethereum’s rally has brought it within striking distance of its November 2021 all-time high of around $4,878.
In the previous bull market, Ethereum surged over 500% from its 2020 lows to its 2021 peak, while in 2017 it climbed more than 9,000% from trough to top.
Standard Chartered expects Ethereum’s broader application scope, spanning decentralized finance (DeFi), tokenization, and smart contracts, to help it outperform Bitcoin BTC/USD over the next 18 months.
“Ethereum’s broader use case set supports a higher ETH/BTC price ratio,” Kendrick wrote. The bank also expects staking yields to remain attractive to investors, further supporting the asset’s appeal.
While the $7,500 forecast is the base case, the bank emphasized that ETF inflows above projections, favorable macro conditions, and further network adoption could push prices higher.
However, the bank also acknowledged that weaker inflows or macro headwinds could limit upside.
“We think Ethereum will continue to benefit from the positive feedback loop between price, on-chain activity, and investor inflows,” Kendrick reiterated.
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