Public companies buying crypto are moving into a new “player vs player” phase where firms must compete harder for investor attention — a shift that could ultimately drive digital asset prices higher, according to Coinbase.
“The days of easy money and guaranteed mNAV [multiple of Net Asset Value] premiums are over,” wrote Coinbase head of research David Duong and researcher Colin Basco in a report published Wednesday.
They argued that digital asset treasuries (DATs) have reached a stage where “strategically positioned players will thrive,” with crypto markets poised to benefit from the “unprecedented capital” flowing through these vehicles to boost returns.
Still, analysts warn the sector may be overcrowded. NYDIG noted Friday that many crypto treasury firms have seen valuations fall even as Bitcoin has climbed, raising doubts about how many will survive long term.
Crypto treasuries at a turning point
Duong and Basco said early movers such as major Bitcoin holder MicroStrategy “enjoyed substantial premiums,” but rising competition, execution risks, and tighter regulation have eroded those advantages.
“The scarcity premium that benefited early adopters has already dissipated,” they wrote, calling the market a “critical inflection point.” Success now depends less on copying MicroStrategy’s playbook and more on execution, differentiation, and timing, they added.
September slump losing relevance
The researchers also pushed back against relying on the so-called “September effect” — the idea that Bitcoin tends to underperform in September.
While Bitcoin fell each September from 2017 through 2022, they noted that the pattern broke in both 2023 and 2024. “If you were to trade on this assumption, you would have been wrong,” they said.
Coinbase researchers also cautioned against leaning on seasonal patterns as a trading guide.
“Month-of-year isn’t a statistically reliable predictor of whether Bitcoin’s monthly returns will be positive or negative,” they wrote. “We don’t think monthly seasonality offers much value as a trading signal.”
Fed cuts could fuel Q4 rally
Looking ahead, Duong and Basco said they expect the Federal Reserve to deliver two rate cuts — one at next week’s meeting and another in October — creating “room for the crypto bull market to run” into the fourth quarter.
They argued Bitcoin is positioned to outperform as it benefits from macroeconomic tailwinds, including persistent U.S. inflation, which rose 0.4% in August to 2.9% year-over-year, according to data released Thursday.
Markets broadly anticipate the Fed will trim rates by 25 basis points at both meetings. Historically, such moves have supported crypto, with investors more willing to take on risk in search of higher returns.
“Heading into Q4, we maintain a constructive outlook on crypto markets, anticipating continued support from robust liquidity, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and encouraging regulatory developments,” the report said.
