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Nigeria needs a shift from paper-based oversight to science-based governance, argues ILIYASU GASHINBAKI
In Nigeria’s governance landscape, promises often echo louder than tangible outcomes. Budgets are passed with great anticipation, policies announced with confident flair, and projects launched with ribbon-cutting fanfare. Yet, more often than not, the outcomes fail to match the optimism. What has long been missing in the machinery of government is not good intentions but verifiable accountability. A system where every Naira spent is linked to measurable progress. A system where public confidence is earned through evidence, not just oratory.
This credibility gap is not accidental, and it is far from new. In 2023, the Office of the Auditor-General for the Federation (AuGF) reported that over ₦300 billion remained unaccounted for across federal government Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs). In the same year, Transparency International ranked Nigeria 140th out of 180 countries on its Corruption Perception Index, despite the existence of fiscal laws and oversight mechanisms. By 2024, the national budget had crossed ₦27 trillion, but many states still struggle to complete even 30% of their capital projects on time or within budget.
It is not the absence of legal instruments that sustains this dysfunction. Nigeria’s Public Procurement Act and Fiscal Responsibility Act are robust on paper, but enforcement remains weak. Too often, agencies submit compliance reports without supporting evidence, announce project milestones without scrutiny, and issue audit certificates that lack rigorous verification. The gap lies in institutional capacity to interrogate and verify precisely the gap that institutional forensics is designed to fill.
We need a shift from paper-based oversight to science-based governance. This is where institutional forensics comes in. Rather than waiting for mismanagement to occur before action is taken, forensic governance embeds early detection, digital verification, and evidence-based review into the fabric of public service. It equips institutions not only to detect failures but to prevent them.
Across sectors, the need for this forensic approach is growing more urgent. Procurement fraud continues to plague development efforts, with inflated contracts and duplicate payments still recurring. Investigations into payroll fraud in several MDAs have uncovered thousands of ghost workers. The Fiscal Responsibility Commission, in its recent compliance review, highlighted over 100 agencies that failed to submit annual financial statements, a legal obligation. Meanwhile, cyber fraud in Nigeria cost over $500 million in 2022 alone, with weak systems making it easier to manipulate or mask digital trails.
To break this cycle, accountability must be embedded into the lifecycle of public expenditure. Projects should not merely be evaluated after implementation. They must undergo continuous, forensic monitoring from the planning stage through execution and reporting. Ministries that handle high-volume funds such as Works, Health, Defence, and Education, should have dedicated forensic units integrated into their internal operations. These units, staffed by certified experts, would examine procurement records, verify deliverables, and track fund flows in real time.
In addition, Nigeria must invest in and support the development of operational forensic laboratories and technical spaces equipped to examine documents, inspect digital records, test construction quality, and assess compliance. These labs should not exist in isolation, but form part of a national framework that supports real-time oversight. When matched with legislative backing and executive support, such an architecture would shift the country from performative audits to preventive controls.
Lessons from other nations underscore the urgency. In Chile and South Korea, forensic auditing and digital traceability have been institutionalised within the public finance system. Estonia, for instance, uses blockchain technology to track every transaction and ensure that public data remains tamper-proof. These innovations were not responses to crisis; they were proactive strategies to embed trust into governance.
Fortunately, Nigeria has made some progress, institutions like the Chartered Institute of Forensics and Certified Fraud Investigators of Nigeria (CIFCFIN), have trained a new generation of forensic professionals, with pilot forensic audits conducted in partnership with the Office of the Auditor-General for the Federation (AuGF), and the Bureau of Public Procurement (BPP) to expand its capacity for contract oversight. What is now required is a unified push to scale these initiatives nationally, with mandates for forensic reporting built into major public programmes.
This must be a top-down and bottom-up reform. Federal and State governments should mandate that all projects above a certain threshold, say ₦100 million, are subject to forensic oversight. Reports should be independently certified and published in a centralized database accessible to oversight institutions and Civil Society Organisations (CSOs). Furthermore, agencies should be compelled to present annual forensic compliance reports alongside their budget submissions. This would link future allocations to past performance, creating a feedback loop that rewards transparency and penalizes opacity.
I dare say that this is not about reinventing the wheel but about the will to act, instill professional integrity, and unwavering commitment to evidence-based governance. Without this, Nigeria will continue to suffer resource leakages, delay development, and disappoint its citizens. Indeed, a government that cannot verify its own performance cannot inspire confidence and a system that lacks forensic traceability will always be vulnerable to manipulation.
I want to state plainly that what is ultimately at stake is more than public funds; it is public trust. In an era of increasing fiscal strain and development urgency, promises are no longer enough. Nigerians deserve a governance system that tracks, measures, and delivers and a government that does not merely announce, but can prove. The future belongs to those who can back their words with facts, their budgets with results, and their intentions with verifiable action.
The path forward is clear. We must embed forensic protocols into the daily operations of governance. Not as an emergency response, but as a standard operating procedure. Not as a tool of punishment, but as a preventive measure. Not as a cosmetic reform, but as a foundational shift. This is how we can surely move from promises to proof, and from paper accountability to tangible progress.
Nigeria can no longer afford the luxury of guessing. It must know, with certainty; It must track, with precision; It must verify, with evidence. Only then can we in good conscience say that accountability has taken root.
Dr. Gashinbaki is the Founder/Chairman, Governing Council, Chartered Institute of Forensics and Certified Fraud Investigators of Nigeria
