Despite the record-breaking surge in gold prices recently, the Egyptian market is witnessing a strong wave of demand, driven by citizens taking advantage of the latest price correction that followed a sharp rally, hoping that the yellow metal will soon resume its upward trajectory.
Said Embabi, CEO of iSagha, a platform specializing in gold and jewelry trading, stated that demand for gold bars and gold coins is currently significantly elevated amid a clear shortage in available supply. This comes after many traders directed their inventory toward exports in recent months, coupled with heavy retail selling when prices hit historic highs.
Embabi noted that buyers rushed to purchase gold as soon as prices started to correct, in an attempt to seize the investment opportunity — particularly with growing expectations of continued price increases amid global economic uncertainty and anticipation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
He added that the limited supply has pushed companies to extend delivery timelines to a period ranging between one week and one month until sufficient quantities can be secured, whether through the resumption of imports or increased reliance on recycling and collecting scrap gold locally.
Sharp Correction After Historic Peak
Gold experienced its steepest correction in months at the end of last week due to profit-taking, after spot prices approached an unprecedented $4,380 per ounce on global markets. Locally, 21-karat gold reached a record EGP 5,900, while 24-karat touched EGP 6,750.
Embabi pointed out that extended delivery periods are not entirely new to the Egyptian market — first emerging clearly in March 2022 following the currency devaluation and import restrictions. At that time, consumers rushed to buy gold as a hedge against inflation and the dollar shortage.
Additionally, many jewelry retailers can no longer adhere to the high manufacturing charges imposed by major producers due to soaring operational and production costs amid rapid price increases.
Global Demand Surges as Experts Call to Protect Local Reserves
Osama Zaraa, Head of Market Analysis at Gold Era, said that global consumer demand for gold has surged across major markets including China, India, the United States, Japan, Switzerland, and Australia, alongside strong purchases from central banks and international institutions seeking protection against depreciating fiat currencies.
Zaraa urged that Egypt should limit gold exports and called for the Central Bank to intervene as a liquidity provider to support the local market, emphasizing the importance of safeguarding domestic reserves of the precious metal to prevent supply shortages — especially given the remarkable increase in global demand.
Price Outlook: Short-Term Volatility, Long-Term Upside
He explained that prices were inflated over recent weeks and had already reached their peak, making the pullback toward $4,125 per ounce a logical and healthy move within an overall bullish trend.
Zaraa expects the upward path to resume in the coming period due to the same drivers that fueled the previous surge, including:
The worsening U.S. national debt crisis
The prolonged government shutdown weighing on economic growth
Weak confidence in U.S. fiscal policies
He revealed that U.S. federal debt surpassed $38 trillion last week, marking the fastest accumulation of $1 trillion outside the COVID-19 period — rising by $1 trillion since August alone — highlighting growing financial risks.
Zaraa forecasts gold prices to range between $4,900 and $5,000 per ounce by 2026.
Geopolitical Risks Continue to Support Gold Prices
Geopolitical uncertainty also remains a key driver of gold demand, particularly with the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and reports that Washington is considering new export restrictions ahead of high-level discussions. A potential meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to take place later this month on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea.
