Bitcoin’s price could rebound by as much as 21% in the next week if October’s historical patterns repeat, according to economist Timothy Peterson.
“Drops of more than 5% in October are extremely uncommon — it’s only happened four times in the past decade,” Peterson noted in an X post on Friday.
He pointed out that such declines occurred in October 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2021. Following those dips, Bitcoin recovered by 16% in 2017, 4% in 2018, and 21% in 2019, with 2021 being the lone exception when the cryptocurrency slid another 3%.
October has earned the nickname “Uptober” due to Bitcoin’s historically strong performance during the month.
Since 2013, October has been Bitcoin’s second-strongest month on average, posting returns of about 20.10%, just behind November’s impressive 46.02% average gain, according to CoinGlass data.
If historical trends play out again, Bitcoin could surge toward $124,000.
Peterson’s remarks followed Bitcoin’s sharp drop to $102,000 on Friday, triggered by U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 100% tariff on Chinese imports.
As of publication, the cryptocurrency has rebounded slightly to $112,468, after recently hitting a new all-time high of $125,100 on Monday, per CoinMarketCap.
If history repeats itself and Bitcoin matches its strongest October rebound — the 21% surge seen in 2019 — a similar recovery from Friday’s low of $102,000 could lift the cryptocurrency to just below its recent all-time high, around $124,000, within a week.
Bitcoiners say it’s still early in ‘Uptober’
Many Bitcoin enthusiasts remain optimistic that the rally is far from over.
In an X post on Friday, Jan3 founder Samson Mow remarked, “There are still 21 days left in Uptober.” Meanwhile, MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe asserted, “This is the bottom of the current cycle,” adding that “the biggest liquidation crash in history — COVID-19 — marked the bottom of the previous one.”
Some analysts, however, took a longer-term perspective. The Bitcoin Libertarian predicted, “In a few years, Bitcoin will crash from $1 million to $800,000 within hours, and we’ll all be talking about a new record for liquidations.”
“Let history repeat,” he added.
