Tokyo Electron Ltd (TEL) reported its Q1 FY2026 earnings, revealing a decline in net sales and operating income compared to the previous quarter. Despite these challenges, the company remains optimistic about future semiconductor demand, particularly driven by AI server applications.
Key Takeaways
* Q1 FY2026 net sales decreased by 16.1% quarter-over-quarter.
* Operating income fell by 21.3% quarter-over-quarter.
* TEL maintained its market share in leading-edge technologies.
* Semiconductor demand is expected to grow, driven by AI applications.
* The company is investing in new facilities and smart manufacturing.
Company Performance
Tokyo Electron’s performance in Q1 FY2026 was marked by a decline in key financial metrics as the company navigates a challenging market environment. The semiconductor market, while strong in demand, shows a shift in customer investment strategies from aggressive to more measured approaches. TEL’s continued focus on innovation and maintaining market share in leading-edge technologies positions it well for future growth.
Financial Highlights
* Net Sales: ¥549.5 billion, down 16.1% quarter-over-quarter.
* Gross Profit: ¥253.9 billion, down 18.2% quarter-over-quarter.
* Operating Income: ¥144.6 billion, down 21.3% quarter-over-quarter.
* Net Income: ¥117.8 billion, down 17.6% quarter-over-quarter.
* Gross Profit Margin: 46.2%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points.
Outlook & Guidance
Tokyo Electron provided guidance for the first half and full year of FY2026. The company expects net sales of ¥1,150 billion and operating income of ¥288 billion for the first half, with a full-year net sales projection of ¥2,350 billion. The operating profit margin is anticipated to be 24.3% for the full year. TEL expects accelerated investment in AI servers in the second half of 2026, supporting its growth outlook.
Executive Commentary
CEO Toshiki Kawai highlighted the company’s resilience in the face of market challenges, stating, “Semiconductor demand is expected to grow toward next year, and that outlook hasn’t changed at all.” He also emphasized the importance of scrutinizing market trends, noting, “We are now scrutinizing WFE market trend in calendar 2026.” Kawai expressed confidence in TEL’s strengthening earning power.
Risks and Challenges
* Market Softness: The first half of 2026 is expected to experience market softness, impacting sales and earnings.
* Investment Shifts: Customers are adopting more measured investment strategies, which could affect short-term revenue.
* Export Regulations: Concerns about the China market and export regulations may pose risks to TEL’s operations.
* Macroeconomic Pressures: Broader economic conditions could influence semiconductor demand and investment levels.
* Supply Chain Issues: Potential disruptions in the supply chain may impact production and delivery timelines.
Q&A
During the earnings call, analysts focused on market softness and customer investment strategies. TEL addressed these concerns by emphasizing long-term growth potential in the semiconductor market and the strategic importance of AI applications. The company also discussed its plans for new development buildings and smart manufacturing initiatives.
Tokyo Electron’s Q1 FY2026 results reflect current market challenges, but the company’s strategic focus on innovation and long-term growth in semiconductor demand provides a positive outlook for the future.
Full transcript – Tokyo Electron Ltd (8035) Q1 2026:
Yatsuda, IR Department Moderator, Tokyo Electron: It’s time for us to start Tokyo Electron Financial announcement for the first quarter of fiscal year ending March 2026. Thank you very much for joining us today despite your busy schedule. I am Yatsuda of IR Department, serving as a moderator for today’s session. Let me introduce today’s attendees. Toshiki Kawai, Representative Director, President and CEO. I am Kawai. Thank you very much. Next, Hiroshi Kawamoto, Senior Vice President, General Manager, Division Officer of Finance Division. I am Kawamoto. Thank you very much for joining us today. Before starting the presentations, let me explain the flow of today’s session. First of all, Kawamoto and Kawai will make presentations. After that, until 6:30 P.M. Japan time, we will have a question and answer session where we entertain questions from the audience. This meeting uses two channels of Webex for the simultaneous interpretation between Japanese and English.
As we explained in our email, your country requested to use apps on PCs or mobile terminals if you plan to ask questions, but if you are not going to ask questions, you can use telephones. Since this conference is intended for institutional investors and analysts, we’d like to appreciate your understanding that we receive questions only from institutional investors and analysts as usual. We will post the audio contents of this conference in Japanese and English on our website within a couple of days. It would be appreciated if you could also visit our website. Now, Mr. Kawamoto will present the consolidated financial summary. Kawamoto-san, please. Good afternoon. I am Kawamoto, Finance Division. I’d like to present the consolidated financial summary of the first quarter of the fiscal year ending March 2026. This slide shows the quarterly financial summary.
I will mainly refer to the figures in the blue box. In the first quarter, we generated net sales of ¥549.5 billion, a 16.1% decrease from the previous quarter, partially because of temporary pause of customers’ capital investments. Gross profit was ¥253.9 billion, an 18.2% decline from the previous quarter. Gross profit margin was 46.2%, a 1.2 percentage point drop quarter over quarter due to the increased ratio of fixed costs along with the decrease of net sales. Operating income was ¥144.6 billion, a 21.3% drop from the previous quarter. Operating profit margin was 26.3%, declined by 1.7 percentage points quarter over quarter, mainly due to the decrease of gross profit margin mentioned before. Income before income taxes decreased by 17.9% to ¥151.9 billion. Net income attributable to owners apparent was ¥117.8 billion, a 17.6% decline from the previous quarter.
Capital expenditures in the first quarter were ¥52.8 billion, consisting mainly of the new development building of Tokyo Electron Miyagi, whose construction was completed in April. This is a graphic representation of the financial summary shown on the previous slide on the chronological basis for your reference. This slide shows net sales by region. As for composition in the first quarter, proportion of Japan rose by 3.6 percentage points to 11.7% quarter over quarter, while proportion of Korea dropped by 6.3 percentage points to 16.1% from the previous quarter. Proportion sales in China in the first quarter was 38.6%, remaining below 40% following the previous quarter. This shows SBE new equipment sales by application. In the first quarter, from the bottom of this chart, sales to non-memory customers accounted for 64%. Non-VLADA memory accounted for 10%, and DRAM accounted for 26%.
Sales to non-memory customers were flat from the previous quarter, while proportion of sales to DRAM customers declined by 11 percentage points quarter over quarter, partly because of their intensive spendings in the previous quarter. This slide shows the field solution sales. In the first quarter, field solution sales were ¥141.2 billion, growing by ¥2.2 billion quarter over quarter, thanks to high utilization rate, mainly for the advanced nodes of the customer staff. Sales, parts service, and modifications were all strong. This slide shows balance sheet. The total asset was ¥2,509.3 billion. Cash and cash equivalents were ¥367.5 billion, declining by ¥128.7 billion from the previous quarter, primarily due to dividend payment to shareholders and payment of income taxes. Notes and accounts receivable were ¥393.2 billion, decreasing by ¥92.3 billion quarter over quarter. Inventories were ¥757.1 billion, increasing by ¥7.9 billion from the previous quarter.
Investment and other assets were ¥400.2 billion, increasing by ¥52.5 billion from the previous quarter, mainly because of the increased share price. For the liabilities and net assets shown on the right-hand side, liabilities were ¥636.5 billion, decreasing by ¥134.1 billion from the previous quarter. This is mainly because of the decrease of income tax payable along with the payment in income taxes, as I mentioned earlier. Net assets were ¥1,872.7 billion, rising by ¥17.5 billion quarter over quarter. The equity ratio was 74.0%. This shows cash flow. Cash inflow from operating activities in the first quarter was ¥74.9 billion. The cash outflow from the investment activities was ¥54.1 billion, mainly due to acquisition of fixed assets. The cash outflow from financing activities was ¥151.1 billion, primarily because of dividend payment. As a result, free cash flow was positive ¥20.7 billion. This concludes my presentation.
Thank you very much for your kind attention. Now, Mr. Kawai will talk about business environment and financial estimates. Kawai-san, please. Go ahead. This is Kawai. Once again, thank you very much for joining us today. I will present business environment and financial estimates. As some changes were observed in the business environment, we have revised WFE market outlook and our financial estimates. Let me start. The revisions made and business progress as well. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, both net sales and profit were almost in line with guidance. Progress of strategic product sales and development evaluation activities toward PO acquisition proceeded smoothly. For film deposition 200 and new material, namely low-resistant metal, many non-customers are working on evaluation with our batch furnaces.
For a series of 3D integration tools, including the extreme laser lift-off tool released in December 2024, we are currently having business discussions with advanced logic customers and non-customers. In April, construction of the new development building in Miyagi was completed, in which we will enhance the development of HRs, one of our main products. Our financial estimate for the first half of fiscal 2026 remains unchanged. Specifically, we expect net sales of ¥1,150 billion, operating income of ¥288 billion, and operating profit margin of 25.0%. Calendar 2025, WFE market proceeds almost as expected, although there are some shifts in investments. Factoring the impacts of exchange rate fluctuation, the WFE market is expected to grow slightly from the previous year to $115 billion. The outlook of semiconductor demand remains unchanged.
The WFE market in the first half of CY 2026, however, is expected to be affected by changes of customers’ investment trends. Specifically, customers now seek higher productivity through yield enhancement, optimization of supply-demand balance to raise profitability, and shift from proactive to solid investment. Accordingly, we have revised the outlook of WFE market growth in the fiscal year ending March 2026 to negative 5% year over year. Changes in each segment are shown in this slide. Along with the downward revision of the fiscal-year-based WFE market outlook, we have revised our FY 2026 full-year financial estimate to net sales of ¥2,350 billion and operating profit margin of 24.3%. Despite the downward revision, our gross profit is expected to exceed ¥1 trillion for two years in a row.
Despite the changes of the WFE market outlook from January to June 2026, there is no change at all in the powerful growing trend of the semiconductor demand, supported by technology drivers of AI server applications. Therefore, we plan to invest ¥295 billion to R&D, almost as announced three months ago. This shows the revised SBE new equipment sales focus. The SBE new equipment sales in the second half of this fiscal year are expected to grow slightly from the first half to ¥880 billion. Here is the breakdown by application. Please note that this revision is attributed mainly to the customers’ manufacturing technology enhancement and their investment strategy changes, and therefore it does not necessarily link with the semiconductor demand. As I said before, due to the changes in customers’ investment trend, we are currently scrutinizing CY 2026 WFE market.
Having said that, however, there is no change in our outlook of the semiconductor market, which keeps expanding, driven by the growing demand of cutting-edge semiconductor plants to be released in calendar 2027 for AI servers. AI servers require high computing power to process massive data at high speed. Currently, two of the 4-nanometer node GPUs are used, but in calendar 2026, four of 3-nanometer node GPUs will be used, and in calendar 2027, each GPU will have 500 billion transistors, about 2.5 times more than the current GPU. The number of HBM will also increase. Memory capacity of HBM will increase by about four times, driven by device scaling of each DRAM and increase of the number of DRAMs to be stacked. We are finally shifting from the gigabyte to terabyte era.
Investment to realize the next generation AI computing platform is expected to start growing from the second half of CY 2026, with device scaling and advanced packaging. Our business opportunities will be expanding more and more. This shows our plan for R&D expenses and CapEx. In this fiscal year, following the new development building in Miyagi whose construction was completed in April, construction of a new development building in Kumamoto and production and logistics center in Wate is planned to be completed in this coming fall in Miyagi. We have also started construction of a new production building in June, which adopts next-generation smart manufacturing concept. R&D expenses in fiscal 2026 are expected to be ¥295 billion, as I said before. The plan for CapEx and depreciation remains unchanged, expected to be ¥240 billion and ¥86 billion, respectively. This is my last slide showing the dividend focus.
Reflecting the revised financial estimate for the second half of this fiscal year, full-year dividend per share is expected to be ¥485 in this fiscal year. While taking account of state-of-cash on hand and capital efficiency during this fiscal year, we will flexibly consider implementation of share repurchase. This concludes my presentation. Thank you very much for your kind attention. Now we will have a question-and-answer session till 6:30 P.M. Japan time. You can ask questions either in Japanese or English, but our speakers on the Japanese channel please allow us to take audio questions only in Japanese. If you ask a question in Japanese, please click the raise hand button on Webex. For details, please refer to the instructions attached to the invitation email. I will invite you one by one. Our secretariat will contact you in advance, so please check Webex chat box.
When asking a question, you are kindly requested to unmute your microphone for yourself. When your question is answered by our attendees, please hit the raise hand button again to remove the raise hand signal. For questions in English, please use Webex chat box and give your affiliation, name, and question in text and send it to our secretariat. We will refrain from answering questions if your name and affiliation are not given. On the Japanese channel, we will translate your English question, and I will read it out in Japanese, and our speakers will answer in Japanese. On the English channel, the question and answer will be simultaneously interpreted into English on a real-time basis. As we would like to take questions from as many participants as possible, we’d like to take one question per person. If time allows, we will take additional questions.
The first question from Yoshida-san from CLSA Securities. I am Yoshida from CLSA Securities. I have a question. 2025, you have revised the WFE market outlook. I want to see some information by application. Now you are now conservative for the first half of 2026. Based on the peripheral situation, I think the advanced foundry and DRAM might be increasing, so I was a bit surprised. Once again, first half you said rather weak, but throughout the year for 2026, I think you said double-digit growth. What happens in the full year, focused by application and the full market, please. By application, changes are made for logic and foundry. The advanced logic, some of the customers have revised their investment plan for logic and foundry. That’s the reason why we have revised our outlook partially. For others, there have been no major changes.
However, non-investment gets a bit weaker than expected. The non-investment will double. That’s what I said before, but the original amount is not so much. Therefore, the changes in non-investment do not have a big impact. This is Kawai. Let me add some more comments. The customers, now technology is enhanced, and they try to review the supply-demand balance when they prepare the investment plan. They are shifting from the aggressive proactive investment to the steady solid investment to enhance the yield. There are several aspects. From the first quarter, we thought there is some upward trend. However, there have been some deceleration in the customer spendings. This trend, the demand for semiconductor does not decrease. Therefore, you can see recovery sometime in the future. From maybe the first six months, next fiscal next calendar year might be some correction period.
However, as I said earlier, now new technologies for AI server will be released in the second half of 2027. Therefore, from the second half of 2026 to the early 2027, we think the customers’ CapEx will be increasing. That’s how we view the market trend. In that sense, I thought double-digit growth is expected, but the first half of next year will see some deceleration. We have a lot of expectation for the increasing trend in the second half of next year. We are now scrutinizing the situation, but we think the positive growth is expected. The advanced logic and logic, the proportion is about 50% to 50% for this year. Next year should be 60% to 40%. That’s how we view that proportion. Thank you very much. Let me get some clarification. 2026 calendar year, 2026.
Although this is positive growth, you are now revising the figure, scrutinizing figures. Therefore, you will give us more. When you said proportion between the advanced and logic, are you talking about the proportion between the advanced and mature node? This year, 50 to 50, but next year, that proportion will become 60 to 40. That’s correct. 2027, we can see new technology for AI server. As I said earlier in my presentation, that would be a driver. That’s one thing. Also, now, DDR4 and DDR5 price has been reversed because there are some corrections in the market. DDR5 will become a driver to further grow the WFE market. For HAI technology, NPU will be introduced and die size will be increased by 30% as well. These are the technology drivers which will have the big impact from late 2026 to early 2027.
Customers’ enhancement of technology for production, and they are focusing on profitability. They do have now a healthy growth plan. Because of that, there are some deceleration in the investment plan, but by and large, there might be the delay of six months, and that six-month delay has been incorporated. There have been no changes in the device market. I think the device market will be growing as expected. Thank you very much. That’s very clear. Mr. Yoshida, thank you very much for your question. Next question is from Mr. Wadaki, the Morgan Stanley MUFG Research Japan. First of all, about the downward revision, I think this is a kind of plot, though, so I understand the downward revision. I have a question regarding China.
In general, in your company, so the companies on entity list will not be conducted at all, or as for you don’t sell HR some product, but you are selling other products to the customers, Chinese customers on the entity list. Could you explain the situation, please? Our company is not affected by the entity list. We are shipping the tools approved by the Japanese government, METI. We are following the METI’s policy. Your company products, for example, the products on the entity list, roughly how much percentage of your products are related to the entity list and how much percentage are not related entity. More critical equipment are to be regulated. That’s the natural trend. Therefore, it’s not the volume-based or amount-based. It’s a bit difficult to say, but to some extent, there are some equipment we are not allowed to ship over the past few years.
Clear figures or numbers cannot be disclosed in this meeting. We are following METI’s policy and METI’s rule. The revision of financial estimate is not attributed to the export control. What about more than 50% or less than 50%? Way below 50%. More than 10% of your product are affected by the regulations. We haven’t calculated the percentage. I’m sorry for that. Thank you very much. Mr. Wadaki, thank you very much for your question. Next question is from Mr. Nakamura of Goldman Sachs, Japan. Mr. Nakamura, please. Thank you very much. This is Nakamura. Thank you. The second half of your this fiscal year, now you have made the downward revision. I want to know more about that downward revision. WFE market for calendar 2025. There have been no major changes, but you have revised your outlook downward. That means in the market your market share has been declining.
Is that what you mean? There have been drastic changes for the outlook of January to March 2026 over the past three months? On page 13, you can see several factors related to the downward revision. When you quantify those factors, which factor plays the major role? If the customer’s productivity goes up, even if the semiconductor market will grow, I’m afraid the SPE industry cannot enjoy good business. Could you explain those things, please? First of all, could you repeat the first question once again, please? The calendar 2025 WFE market does not change so much while your financial estimate has been revised downward. Why does it happen? Thank you very much. This time, WFE market on the calendar year basis should be $115 billion.
The WFE market outlook is increased, but because of the exchange rate, the equipment produced in Japan, when they are calculated on the dollar basis, actually increased by $3 billion. The remaining $2 billion is coming from the leading-edge logic pulled in investment together with other reasons. That’s the reason why we have increased the WFE market outlook by $5 billion. As for your second question, what you say is correct. The fourth quarter, we think from January to March next fiscal, next year, we thought we can see increasing growth from January to March 2026. That’s our previous focus. However, because of the changes in the customer strategy, where they are trying to improve productivity and they try to focus on productivity now, actually our outlook has been revised downward. Impacts are shown on page 13. You asked me to quantify those factors.
That’s what you said in your question. There are five factors on page 13: the customer’s investment revision for advanced logic, the reduction of the legacy investment by the emerging customer, Chinese customers, and investment plan change because of the focusing on the profitability and DDR4 and DDR5. This is the order from the top towards the bottom. I think this is the order of the impact, especially the top three have the major impacts. When it comes to China, the emerging semiconductor manufacturers in China, that is about $2 billion. On the basis of fiscal year, the impact is about $2 billion. The Chinese emerging customers, maybe there are about 150 chip makers in China, and that 150 Chinese chip makers are getting more and a little bit conservative. When we accumulate the figures, that is amounted to $2 billion.
Five factors, and the top one is a major one. Primarily, there are three major reasons on the top for our downward revision. Thank you very much for your detailed explanation. Mr. Nakamura, thank you very much for your question. Next question is from Shimamoto-san from Okasan Securities. Thank you very much. I am Shimamoto from Okasan Securities. Thank you very much. I have some questions for figures. The very simple question, CY calendar year, WFE. Calendar 2025, WFE market, you said $115 billion. This is the upward revision. On the FY basis, also on the dollar basis, the minus or negative 5% is expected. Compared with previous year, 5% increase on the calendar year basis, but minus 5% on the fiscal year basis. Three months difference makes that big difference. That’s correct. That’s because of the outlook from January to March next year has been drastic changes. Yes.
We thought you can see some increasing trend from January to March, and we thought we need to do some preparation because in the technology driver, we were expecting increasing trend from January to March. However, that increase, there is only actually the decreasing trend from January to March. The fourth quarter of our fiscal year or calendar year January to March, WFE market trend has been shifted or pushed out. We thought the WFE market will increase, but actually now it’s revised to downward. When it comes to share, our share in the SAM has been secured. Therefore, this is not negative or downward division because of the decline in share. Each company made. Their own announcement. The timing of delivery or product mix are the reasons. Therefore, our share is not declined. I want to add this comment. I’m sorry, I answered to the previous question as well.
Thank you very much. Thank you very much. I have one follow-up question. When you look at a full-year basis, there is the possibility for positive growth. That’s what you said. Some projects have been pushed out. Is that how you view the market trend? Some projects or some investment are canceled? How do you view the market situation? The semiconductor demand is expected to grow toward next year, and that outlook hasn’t changed at all. We have revised downward revision. One of the reasons is the customer’s approach to enhance productivity by improving yield, and customers are more aware of profitability by balancing supply-demand more effectively. They try to shift from the proactive-aggressive investment to the solid investment, especially among logic customers. These are the major changes from our original previous outlook. When it comes to investments project, there have been no cancellations at all.
Maybe the delay should be six months at maximum. Thank you very much. Thank you very much for your question, Mr. Shimamoto. Next question is Mr. Yamamoto of Mizuho Securities. I am Yamamoto from Mizuho Securities. Can you hear me? Yes. Thank you. I have a very similar question. I’m sorry for that. Six months delay, you referred to. As for your company, the first half and second half sales by application, could you give us some more information regarding the sales in the first and second half by application? DRAM, you can see some declining figures, but actually DRAM sales from the first and second half, your sales will be increasing. Non-sales, you expected to a drastic increase from the first and second half, but actually it declined. Non-memory, you thought there is some increase from the first to second half, but actually the non-memory sales remain flat.
Maybe for NAND, deceleration is a major factor. You said on page 13, you said the first three are the major factors, and I think the NAND is the number three factor. Actually, when you look at figures, the amount is almost the same, but the change rate for NAND is rather big or significant. Could you explain those figures, please? I think there are some specific issues for Tokyo Electron. Could you refer to page 15, please? Could you refer to page 15? On the left, you can see the sales by application for the second half of this fiscal year. The ¥880 billion on the right, you can see our announcement in April. The estimate announced April, ¥1 trillion 100 billion. The height of the bar chart, the change of the height of the bar chart, represents the changes or revision of our outlook.
The green portion, back in April, the height of green bars. When you refer to the left-hand side, the second half of this fiscal year, there is no change in proportion. However, the height of the green bar is decreased because of the changes of the strategy by some logic customers. The NAND, you can see reduction of purple portion, 15% back in April. However, now we expect 11%. You can see the height of the purple portion that represents the amount. You can see the data of the previous fiscal year. As you can see, the width or height of purple is more than last year when you look at this fiscal year’s purple portion. Supply-demand balance for NAND is well closely watched by NAND customers. NAND customers conducted some adjustments, and we have incorporated that adjustment made by the NAND customers.
The first half of next year is a kind of correction period. There is some difference between calendar year and fiscal year, but your company’s new equipment application sales might be reduced in the first half of next fiscal year. Is that a correct understanding? Actually, toward a 2-nanometer node, the customer investment plan, not only one company. I think more customers will present their investment plan toward a 2-nanometer node. We want to closely watch the situation. It’s so difficult to find that right timing. Thank you very much. Mr. Yamamoto, thank you very much for your question. Next question is from Kamisaki-san from Tokai Tokyo Intelligence Laboratory. I am Kamisaki from Tokai Tokyo. I have a question regarding emerging Chinese chip makers. WFE market assumption on calendar 2025, second half of calendar 2025, I think their investment is getting weaker.
For the first half of calendar 2026, do you think the further reduction is expected in the first half of calendar 2026 among the Chinese emerging chip makers? Annually, that’s about $45 to $46 billion. I think that’s the trend toward 2026. The legacy node market and the number of chip makers in China is rather big. There are so many emerging Chinese chip makers. I don’t know the average. It’s a bit difficult for me to give you the answer. The WFE in China this year, $45 or $46 billion, I think. The size of the WFE market remains unchanged. However, the entire WFE market is going up. Therefore, the proportion of legacy will be declining next calendar year. For the new foundries, their yield has been improving. Now you can see more and more new foundries. Do you think so, or you don’t see any new emerging foundries?
So far, there is no such trend. If the emerging chip makers’ yield is improving, the parts and service sales are expected to increase because their utilization rate goes up. However, so far, we haven’t seen such kind of trend. Thank you very much. Kamisaki-san, thank you very much for your question. The next question is given in English text, so let me read it out. The question is from Tammy Keesan of Varianberg Asset Management. The question is, what’s the growth driver for second half 2026 regarding acceleration, please? Is your 2026 WFE estimation still unchanged? Also, on China, has China’s spending bottomed after scaling back you have been seeing, or can it go down further? Three questions. As for your first question, the growth driver is AI server applications, the leading-edge logic for AI server and HBM.
When you refer to page 16 of the slide, as I said on page 16 of the slide, at present, the current device for AI server, 4 nanometer, two of the 4 nanometer node GPU are mounted right now, but in the future, 3 nanometer node GPU, four of them actually, will be mounted in the future in calendar 2027. Now, there are 200 billion transistors right now. In 2027, two years from now, 500 billion transistors will be mounted. As for HBM, at present, there are eight HBMs for two GPUs to generate the memory capacity of 288 gigabytes, but in year 2027, the memory capacity will increase to 1 terabyte. The 16 DRAM size to be stacked, and the number of layers will be increasing from 12 to 16. These are the major drivers. What was the second question?
Yes, the second question is, is your 2026 WFE estimation still unchanged? The 2026 WFE market outlook is under investigation right now. There is some delay from January to March 2026, but second quarter from April to June 2026, we can see some recovery trend. We are now scrutinizing WFE market trend in calendar 2026, and we are now scrutinizing the situation. Anyway, 2027, you can see the. Steady increase in investment for AI server, and I think the preparation for such new innovation will start from the second half of the 2026 WFE market is expected to grow in later 2026. We want to analyze the situation more to come up with something more clear. The third question is regarding China. From last year to this year, the WFE market in China has been shrinking.
Do you think the Chinese WFE market bottomed out, or do you see some more decline in WFE market for DX and GX semiconductor demand for digital transformation and green transportation will be increasing steadily? The Chinese customers’ self-sufficiency in China is not yet fulfilled in Chinese market. At present, there are some struggles in power semiconductors. I think China proportion is about 30 in the middle of the 30% level. When WFE goes up, when it comes to amount, Chinese market is also expected to grow. We don’t see the further decline in Chinese WFE market in the future. Thank you very much for your question. Next question is from Yoshio Kasam from Nomura Securities. Thank you very much. I am Yoshio Oka from Nomura Securities. Can you hear me? Yes, I can hear you. WFE market and TEL growth potential. This is what I want to ask.
First of all, FY26 or fiscal year ending March 2026. Now, you have made the downward revision minus 5%. What was the figure three months ago announcement? After that, after you tell me, what about this fiscal year? You said that Tokyo Electron sales will decrease by 3%. That means your company outperformed the WFE market. When it comes to the fiscal 2027, do you think you can outperform WFE market? Are there any differences between TEL’s potential for growth and WFE market trend? Our mid-term management plan, 2027 is a target year of our mid-term management plan. Product mix and timing of delivery, so there is not a consistent trend. When it comes to our earning power, our company’s earning power is getting stronger and stronger. Gartner made an announcement April this year for the share.
When it comes to WFE market, the calendar year, the growth rate is 5.6%. Our company’s growth rate was 23%. Therefore, especially our H sales increased. Coater/developer share is increased from 90% and further higher. 3D integration, Bonda de Bonda, actually our sales of Bonda de Bonda has been increased by three times over the past two years. Our earning power is getting stronger steadily because of that. Five years ago, our gross profit margin was 40%, but recently our gross profit margin has increased by about 5 percentage points. The gross profit is exceeding ¥1 trillion for two years in a row. Needless to say, regulations have some impact. The high value-added product cannot be delivered to the Chinese market, as was said in his question.
Geopolitical impacts and inflation impacts are also observed, but our gross profit exceeds ¥1 trillion for two years in a row, and our gross profit margin has increased by 5 percentage points over the past five years, and our share has been increasing. Our share and profit growth, both of those two factors, are improving steadily. Despite the geopolitical factors, maybe next fiscal year we will closely see whether we can achieve those figures, but it is clear that our earning power is improving steadily. Also, ROE 30% or more. Last year, we achieved 30.3% ROE, so we achieved our mid-term management goal two years ahead of the target year. If the sales come back, we are able to achieve the figures or targets of mid-term management plan sometime in the future. The mid-term management plan is not the final goal. It’s a kind of interim goal for us.
On the FY basis, we haven’t disclosed information of the wafer fab equipment (WFE) market on FY fiscal year basis. Thank you very much. FY 2027 WFE market growth and Tokyo Electron Limited’s sales are almost comparable. Yes, of course, we won’t be below the WFE market growth in fiscal 2027. I think we can outperform WFE market also in fiscal 2027. Thank you very much, Mr. Yoshioka, for your question. Next question is Mr. Nakanomyo of Jefferies Japan Ltd. Thank you very much. On page 13, I’m sorry, repeat the same question once again. I try to improve my understanding. Some leading-edge logic customers are revising their CapEx plan. You may not be able to talk about specific customers. Three major customers, originally two logic customers, didn’t change their investment so much.
In that sense, the active investment made by only one logic customer, and that particular logic customer has changed their investment plan for January to March 2027. Do you think the other two logic customers’ investment plan will be deferred furthermore? It’s a bit difficult to make that comment. I think your second option is more likely. The capital efficiency improves for the one major logic customer, and your business is rather getting smaller. No, that doesn’t happen. January to March next year, it’s six months ahead. Now you have revised your outlook. That means the changes in January to March are rather clear or realistic. Various customers and some top management have been changed. The new top management issued a new policy or direction. Some customers’ financial announcements are made, and we have incorporated all those factors. Number four, HBM. HBM investment.
The investment efficiency gets better, and investment for HBM is not increasing so much. Scaling of DDR5 improves investment efficiency, or only the matter of timing of investment. Semiconductor demand itself is growing, and toward year 2030, the semiconductor market is expected to grow to $1 trillion. There is no change at all for this measured trend. For 2027, the new device for server will be spreading furthermore. There is no change in the growing trend of semiconductor market or demand. In that sense, there have been no changes compared with the previous guide outlook, but customers’ technology, production technology is improved. Because of that, some revisions were made. Our short-term financial estimate has been revised downward, and that portion has negative impacts.
However, on the other hand, the investment, actually, customers closely watch supply-demand balance, and customers are more focusing on profitability, and they try to improve productivity, and they are improving their yield so they can produce chips with low cost. For long mid-term, long-term perspective, these factors have a positive impact to further drive the growth in mid and longer-term perspective because of the technology innovation. As for the financial estimates, maybe we might have some impact for six months, and there are some symptoms, and we try to address to the capital market properly. Because we become aware of this kind of trend, we decided to make this announcement. Thank you very much for your question, Mr. Nakanomyo. Next question is Mr. Shibano of Citigroup Global Markets Japan. Thank you very much for your presentation. I am Shibano of Citigroup Global Markets Japan.
For the quarterly performance improvement or momentum for the further improvement of your financial performance, the quarterly sales, the fourth quarter should be the bottom. Is that a correct understanding? When it comes, there is no quantitative disclosure. I understand that. When it comes to qualitative manner, in terms of orders, do you see some decreasing trend in orders? Let’s say the July-September period should be the bottom period. Is that a correct understanding? The bottom period, we should investigate to scrutinize furthermore. I think January-March period is very close to the bottom. We should study more to see what happens in what will happen in April to June. That might be some delay by three months or six months. In the second half of 2027, we will see a new device for AI server.
When you think about that new device, there is a possibility to have the sudden increase or growth in the market. We also need to watch the enhancement of customers’ yield. Thank you very much. You talked about mid-term management plan. When you answered to the question of Mr. Atsushi Yoshioka, I have one follow-up question. For FY 2027 is the target year of mid-term management plan. Six months ago, maybe you said you can achieve the net sales of ¥3 trillion. Do you think there are some changes in that prospect or external environment has been changed over the past three years? Not only the most recent changes, but I think overall trend has been changed. Would you like to refresh your grand targets or you don’t think there is no need to revise the mid-term management plan?
When it comes, I think the approach to the fixed cost and investment has been changed. How do you view the current mid-term management plan? As I said a little bit earlier, now you can see improvement of the gross profit margin and our share has been improving. New products, process of record, POR, or qualification by the customer has been acquired. There are quite a few good positive factors because of that. Now there is a kind of delay by six months, and we try to find out the magnitude of impacts. For mid-term management plan, maybe fiscal 2027 or 2028, ever since the announcement of our current mid-term management plan, there have been many changes in terms of geopolitics. We are making steady progress in our business. We are keeping the investment for further growth in the future. There is high expectation for further technology innovation.
Therefore, we have no intention to revise our mid-term management plan. The only thing is the timing for achievement of mid-term management plan. Though we are affected by the WFE market trend to some extent, when the WFE market reaches a certain level. We are sure to achieve the targets. Thank you very much for your question. Actually, one more question. The question is from Varun Rajawansi from Lazard Asset Management. The question is, can you please make a comment on your market share excluding China? Are there areas where Tokyo Electron is losing share? Your sales outlook for this fiscal year is much worse versus what peers are suggesting. First of all, among different applications, the leading-edge area, we don’t lose shares in the advanced areas.
Partially, in China, the general purpose or legacy node devices, because of the Chinese government policy, the Chinese two vendors are improving their share. That’s true. Last year, WFE market analysis announced by Gartner, the WFE market grew by 5.7% on average. Tokyo Electron grew by more than 23%. Despite weak yen, the growth rate of 23% or more is very outstanding. Actually, three Chinese companies are among the top 20, and some of their sales growth rate is more than 40%. In the Chinese legacy market, our share in that Chinese legacy market has been declining slightly. However, when it comes to the volume zone for our further growth, that is cutting-edge technology area, we keep our share. Compared with our peers, there might be some strong negative impacts. Some companies may have stronger figures for share in this year.
That is because of product mix and the timing of delivery. In our existing markets, we don’t lose our market share at all in the leading-edge area. Thank you very much for your question. It is time for us to close today’s conference. Before closing, however, I’d like to make an announcement. Semicon West will be held in Phoenix, Arizona, for three days from October 7th to 9th, 2025. On day one, October 7th, Tokyo Electron will organize Fireside Chat from 1:00 P.M., joined by Mr. Kawai, Mr. Akiyama, Mr. Ishida, and Mr. Sekiguchi. In this event, we plan to discuss our mid-term and long-term business opportunities and growth potential. If you go to Semicon West, please join us in this event. We will send you the details later. Lastly, we’d like to continue to improve our IIR activities based on your precious feedback.
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