Since the medium-term swing low on 7 April 2025, triggered by the US Liberation Day tariff announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
So far, the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index (a proxy of the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures) has not yet broken above its current all-time high of 45,100 printed in December 2024 after a retest of it last Monday, 28 July, versus fresh all-time highs seen on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100.
Let’s examine the Dow Jones Industrial Average from a technical analysis perspective within a short-term time horizon (1 to 3 days), coupled with an inter-market analysis of Caterpillar (CAT), the third biggest weightage component stock of the DJIA (6%) as its Q2 earnings release will be out on Tuesday, 5 August before the US market opens.
Fig. 1: US Wall Street 30 CFD Index minor trend as of 4 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)
Fig. 2: Caterpillar medium-term trend as of 4 Aug 2025 (Source: TradingView)
The five-day minor corrective decline of the US Wall Street 30 CFD Index since the 28 July high of 45,146 is likely to have reached an exhaustion zone after last Friday, 1 August’s intraday sell-off triggered by the weaker-than-expected US non-farm payroll print for July.
Bullish bias above 43,600/43,475 key short-term pivotal support and a clearance above 43,920 may reinforce a potential minor recovery towards the next intermediate resistances at 44,250/44,390 and 44,780 (see Fig. 1).
Key elements
Failure to hold at 43,475 invalidates the bullish scenario for an extension of the minor corrective decline towards the next supports at 43,170 and 42,860 (the key 200-day moving average and the medium-term ascending trendline from 23 May 2025 low).
