– U.S. equity index futures are up following a session of losses for the S&P 500 (-0.3% to 6,941), Nasdaq 100 (-0.6% to 25,127), and small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.3% to 2,679), while the Dow 30 (+0.1% to 50,188) closed at another record as market participants brace for more impacting data following the retail sales miss and AI threat seen extending into the financial sector; Treasury yields dropped across the curve following a flat December retail sales print (see Data below), and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) is nearing a coin toss on a consecutive 25bp rate cut out of the Fed in July, and also nearing a coin toss on a total of three rate cuts this year
– Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares close 1.9% higher on a few positive factors and undoing most of its losses suffered last week
– Weakness in retail sales data (see Data below) weighs on retail giants like Costco (NASDAQ:COST) (-2.6%), Target (NYSE:TGT) (-2%) and Walmart (NASDAQ:WMT) (-1.8%) with the latter also hit by a lawsuit from Estée Lauder (+2.3%) that it facilitated the sale of counterfeit products on its online marketplace
– Shares of Moderna plunge 8.9% in extended trading as the FDA refuses to review its mRNA flu vaccine application
– Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (-2.6%), Kohl’s (-1.4%), GoPro (+2%), Krispy Kreme (-1%), Opendoor (-4.9%), BlackBerry (+1.4%), Nokia (-1.3%)
– Crypto stocks track cryptocurrencies lower: Coinbase (-2.8%), MicroStrategy (-3.9%), Mara Holdings (-5%), Gemini Space Station (-7.7%)
– Earnings:
o Coca-Cola (NYSE:KO): beats on earnings but misses on revenue; shares close 1.5% lower
o Ford Motor (NYSE:F): beats on revenue but suffers its worse misses on earnings in years due to tariff-related costs; shares up about 0.7% in extended trading
o S&P Global (NYSE:SPGI): earnings miss and full-year 2026 guidance below analyst expectations; shares plunge 9.7% by the close
o AstraZeneca: revenue beat but slight earnings miss; shares close 2.2% higher
o Barclays: beats on earnings and revenue, and announces share buyback; shares down 2.2% by the close
o BP: earnings beat but slight revenue miss, suspends share buybacks; shares drop 6.7%
o Kering: beats slightly on sales and sees a “return to growth and margin improvement” this year; shares jump about 11%
Commodities:
– Gold hovers above $5K after soft U.S. economic data, a retreating greenback in the FX market, and yields moving lower; silver back above $82 this morning in all calmer waters after the volatility at the end of January and earlier this month, but where both labor data today and inflation readings on Friday could introduce more intraday action
– Oil prices (WTI) are back above $64 on lingering U.S.-Iran tensions, with Washington reportedly considering tanker interceptions and possible carrier deployments if nuclear talks fail; API’s weekly energy inventory readings show a massive build for oil (+13.4m barrels) with a smaller increase for gasoline (+3.3m), and a drawdown for distillate (-2m); EIA in its STEO unchanged on world oil demand (’26 at 104.8m bpd, ’27 at 106.1m bpd)
– Bitcoin remains tested breaking beneath $69K this morning with Ether around $2K with correlations to negative factors intact while positive ones fail to give it a lift; Strategy says they won’t be selling BTC
– US Dollar Index suffers another drop getting into the lower 96 handle pressured by weak December retail sales and expectations of slower job growth, and weakening further against the yen this morning taking USD/JPY below 154; U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick says the greenback was manipulated higher over many years and it’s more natural to be at the current level
– Federal Reserve’s Hammack prefers to hold rates steady to assess incoming data and that they’re in a good place to see how things play out, and Logan also favours a cautious stance saying if inflation falls and labor market stays stable then no further rate cuts will be needed
– European Central Bank’s de Guindos that the economy is more resilient and inflation is moving towards target
– People’s Bank of China reiterates it’ll continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, pledging to support stable economic growth and guide prices towards a reasonable recovery
– Indices: Long sentiment rises though for different reasons as in the case of the S&P (heavy buy 73% from 72% yesterday), Nasdaq (67% from 63%) and Russell (69% from 66%) due to fresh shorts closing out and some longs initiating while the Dow finished higher attracting trend traders and causing sentiment to shift (from a slight sell 51% to a slight buy 53%)
– Commodities: Reaches extreme buy territory again in gold (79% from 77% yesterday) and moves further within it in silver (84% from 82%) despite the lack of intraday volatility
– FX: Shifts from the middle in EUR/USD (to a slight buy 51%), in GBP/USD from a slight buy (54%) to a slight sell (51%), while moves away from the middle in USD/JPY (to a slight buy 54%) as pullback in the pair’s price sees more shorts exit
Data:
– U.S. retail sales flat m/m for December and a clear miss when compared to 0.4% expectations, and flat when excluding autos it too a miss; trade pricing data shows 0.3% m/m export growth for the same month, but import prices slows to 0.1%; NFIB’s small business optimism index falls back slightly to 99.3
– China January consumer inflation rose 0.2% y/y, below the 0.4% forecast and down from 0.8% in December, with m/m CPI also a miss at 0.2% (vs 0.3% expected); producer prices remained in deflation, falling 1.4% y/y, slightly better than the -1.5% forecast
