The crypto market structure bill could slip to 2027 with implementation pushed to 2029 as President Trump’s $620 million crypto empire and Democrat midterm leverage freeze Senate negotiations, TD Cowen warns.
Trump’s $620M Crypto Problem
Democrats want provisions barring senior government officials and their families — including President Donald Trump — from owning or operating crypto businesses,
Bloomberg estimated Trump has generated roughly $620 million from crypto ventures tied to his family, including World Liberty Financial (CRYPTO: WLFI), a DeFi and stablecoin project listing Trump and his three sons as co-founders.
The family also holds a stake in bitcoin mining firm American Bitcoin (NASDAQ:ABTC), while the Official Trump (CRYPTO: TRUMP) and MELANIA (CRYPTO: MELANIA) meme coins launched just before Trump took office.
TD Cowen’s Jaret Seiberg said such language would be a “nonstarter” for Trump unless the effective date were pushed years into the future.
“One potential way to overcome Trump’s objections is to make the conflict of interest provision effective three years after enactment,” Seiberg wrote in a note on Monday.
“This pushes it past the next inauguration, which means it would never apply to Trump.
We do not believe Democrats would accept this deal unless it also pushed the rest of the bill out three years,” he added.
Democrats Have The Leverage
Republicans need 60 votes to overcome a Senate filibuster, meaning they need backing from at least 7-9 Democrats even if all Republicans support the bill.
That dynamic gives Democrats leverage to delay passage until after the 2026 midterms.
Democrats may have little incentive to move quickly if they believe they could regain House control in November.
A later enactment date would push implementation beyond the next presidential inauguration, allowing Democratic regulators to shape final rules if a Democrat wins the White House in 2028.
“Time favors enactment as the problems disappear if the bill passes in 2027 and takes effect in 2029,” Seiberg said.
Why The Bill Matters
The crypto market structure legislation would establish a clear framework for how digital assets are regulated in the U.S., including agency oversight and asset classification.
The House passed its version last year, but momentum has slowed in the Senate.
Senator Bernie Moreno (R-MI) described negotiations as “decently frustrating,” stressing “no deal is better than a bad deal.”
Senate Banking Committee Chair Tim Scott (R-SC) announced “real progress” in recent months, though policy experts give the bill only a 50-60% chance of passing in 2026.
The crypto industry wants the law to take effect under Trump and is agnostic to conflict-of-interest provisions. That mismatch is a central reason why the politics remain difficult.
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