TOKYO: The dollar was on the defensive, shares edged up and gold scaled new heights on Wednesday as global markets counted down to an anticipated rate cut by the Federal Reserve later in the day and waited on signals around the extent of future easing. The euro surged to a four-year high against the greenback in the prior session on the Fed easing bets, while oil remained firm following Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries and ports. Asian equity indexes were led by Hong Kong shares, which surged to a four-year high.
The Fed is expected to cut its benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 4.00%-4.25% range at the end of its monetary policy meeting later in the global day. The main focus beyond the rate decision will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on the outlook for U.S. monetary policy.
“Markets are effectively daring the Fed to over-deliver on the dovish side,” said Dilin Wu, research strategist at Pepperstone. “The bigger question, though, is whether Powell can satisfy markets already leaning heavily on a dovish view, or whether conditions are ripe for a near-term shakeout in both USD and gold positioning.”
The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of currencies of other major trading partners, edged up 0.1% to 96.723 after a 0.7% slide on Tuesday to the lowest since early July.
The euro was down 0.1% at $1.1855, after touching $1.1867 on Tuesday, its highest level since September 2021. The dollar was little changed at 146.43 yen following a 0.6% slide in the previous session.
“If the (Fed) chair is more dovish than expected, of course, you would expect that to weigh on the dollar, but really, how much more bearish can you get from here?” Mahjabeen Zaman, head of foreign exchange research at ANZ, said on a podcast. “We’ve already got more than five cuts priced in for the cycle.” Stephen Miran was sworn into his Fed position on Tuesday morning, after the U.S. Senate narrowly confirmed him to the central bank’s Board of Governors ahead of its policy meeting. A U.S. appeals court separately declined to let President Donald Trump fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan reversed early declines, rising 0.2% and on course for a ninth-straight gain. Japan’s Nikkei stock index slid 0.1% after a record high close on Tuesday. Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng Index jumped 1.4%, buoyed by signs of progress of a deal to allow the Chinese-owned social media platform TikTok to keep operating in the U.S.
European and U.S. stock futures were firmer after a largely soft cash session overnight. The pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were up 0.32%, German DAX futures gained 0.36%, and FTSE futures added 0.11%. U.S. stock futures, the S&P 500 e-minis, were flat. The Bank of Canada is also expected to cut rates on Wednesday to contend with a flagging labour market and trade frictions. Soft trade data from Japan showing exports fell for a fourth straight month in August highlighted the toll on major economies from the wide-ranging tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. U.S. crude dipped 0.1% to $64.45 a barrel after a three-day surge. Russia’s oil pipeline monopoly Transneft has warned producers they may have to cut output following Ukraine’s drone attacks on critical facilities, three industry sources said.
Spot gold gained 0.2% to $3,683.29 per ounce, after the yellow metal crossed $3,700 for the first time in the previous session.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 0.2% to $116,687.18, while ether declined 0.18% to $4,490.76.
(Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Sam Holmes)
