Historical patterns suggest DOGE could potentially reach new all-time highs in 2025
Dogecoin has been riding the wave of the crypto market’s recent strength, jumping more than 16% over the past week. However, the meme coin has started to move sideways in the last day, and on-chain indicators are suggesting that a profit-taking phase might be approaching.
The percentage of addresses in profit for DOGE recently touched 84%, matching levels seen in late July before the price dropped from $0.24 to $0.19 in just one week. This metric has historically served as a warning sign that some holders may be ready to cash out.
Supporting this theory, exchange spot netflow has flipped from negative to positive. After showing -$52 million on August 10, it changed to +$2.7 million on August 11.
This shift indicates more DOGE is moving into exchanges, typically a precursor to selling activity.
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides further evidence of potential cooling in the market. On August 10, DOGE’s SOPR climbed to 1.045, approaching levels that preceded previous short-term pullbacks.
When the SOPR reads above 1.0, it means holders are taking profits rather than losses when selling.
On the technical side, DOGE price is currently hovering near $0.235, just below the falling trendline of a descending triangle pattern. This formation often signals consolidation in shorter timeframes.
Fibonacci levels are acting as the base of this triangle, creating important support zones. The $0.22 mark stands out as a particularly crucial level that has held strong in previous tests.
If this support holds, buyers may step in to maintain the upward momentum. However, if it breaks, DOGE could experience a deeper correction.
For bulls to regain control, DOGE would need to clear the $0.24-$0.246 resistance zone. Breaking above this range would invalidate the bearish triangle pattern and potentially open the door to testing $0.25 and beyond.
Looking at DOGE’s longer-term performance, the crypto has experienced several major upticks over the last three years. Each bullish wave has been larger than the previous one, with shorter durations between waves.
The first major recovery attempt after the 2021 crash occurred in March 2022, with a 94% rally in a single day. The second major rally started around February 2024, lasting about four weeks with a 200% gain.
The third major bullish wave ran from mid-October to early December 2024.
Based on these patterns, DOGE may already be in the early stages of a fourth bullish wave, considering its bounce back since June. If historical characteristics continue, this current wave could potentially be more pronounced than previous ones.
Some analysts suggest this pattern could lead DOGE to challenge its all-time high of $0.73, which would represent a 217% increase from its current price of $0.23.
Whale activity also appears to support a bullish outlook. CoinGlass data shows that whale flows in the spot market remain positive, with Binance leading with $19.25 million in fulfilled buys during the weekend.
OKX spot recorded about $5.6 million in filled buy difference, with an additional $115,450 on Coinbase.
Derivatives markets also showed strength, with over $123 million in net buys across Binance and OKX, highlighting cautious but positive sentiment.
DOGE has also experienced a sizable uptick in market dominance by more than 9% last week, confirming healthy attention among top altcoins.
However, traders should note that Bitcoin dominance has risen above 60%, suggesting attention may be shifting away from altcoins and back to BTC. This could mean potentially weaker liquidity inflows for altcoins, including Dogecoin.
For now, the $0.22 support level appears to be the line in the sand that could determine whether DOGE continues its rally or faces a correction in the coming days.
