The 2025 Paris Air Show, Europe’s biggest air show, is nearing an end as Airbus announced a flurry of new plane orders while Boeing dialed back its presence to focus on last week’s Air India 787 Dreamliner crash.
Reuters estimates Airbus has secured $21 billion in sales through Thursday morning, led by 132 firm orders on Monday alone from buyers including Saudi lessor AviLease, Japan’s ANA, and Poland’s LOT. That compares to just 41 for Boeing and 15 for Brazil’s Embraer, according to aviation advisory firm IBA.
So far, in Boeing’s absence, Airbus has seized center stage in the commercial aviation space. The show was defense-heavy, and the most yet, according to aviation blog AeroTime:
Yet even this early flurry of orders couldn’t shift the broader impression: the 2025 edition is a defense show. More specifically, a show shaped by war and the enduring demands it places on production, logistics, and inventory. Organizers revealed that approximately 45% of this year’s show was dedicated to defense and security, marking a record-high share for Le Bourget. Air and missile defense systems, ISR platforms, and drone technologies dominated both floor space and conversations.
The wars in Ukraine and Gaza continue to influence both the tone and content of announcements across the board. This year, exhibitors seemed more preoccupied with the gritty realities of supply chains, industrial base readiness, and attrition warfare.
It is a telling shift. The idea that high-end systems alone win wars has been challenged repeatedly over the past two years. In Ukraine, Russia’s reliance on quantity over quality has exposed the limits of boutique arsenals. In Israel, stockpiles have proven just as essential as sensors or networked command.
Lockheed Martin captured this mood directly. It announced a production ramp-up across its missile portfolio, with a 40% increase in tactical missile deliveries year-on-year. While many eyes were looking for flashy unveilings or next-gen prototypes, Lockheed’s real message was about scale and delivery capacity, two areas militaries increasingly care about.
Beyond missiles, a clear narrative emerged around the transformation of legacy platforms. Gone are the days when new drones or sixth-generation fighter mockups dominated every conversation. Instead, the focus has shifted toward how existing assets, some of them decades old, can be adapted to fight in tomorrow’s networked environment.
Take Airbus’s A400M, which was presented not just as a transport aircraft but as a future “mothership” platform capable of deploying UAVs and integrating into a system-of-systems battlefield. Similarly, Sikorsky gave a briefing in which its Black Hawk was showcased with concepts for integration with unmanned systems and autonomous missions, proof that even established workhorses are being reimagined for collaborative combat scenarios.
The language surrounding these announcements has changed, too. Buzzwords like “interoperability,” “modularity,” and “attritability” featured heavily, but so did references to reliability, sustainment, and production guarantees. It seems that militaries are asking fewer questions about what might be possible, and more about what will actually be delivered, on time and in quantity.
In a separate note, a team of Goldman analysts, led by Noah Poponak, attended the air show and met with 15 companies across the aviation industry.
Given the Paris Air Show’s heavier defense focus this year amid escalating global conflicts, we’ll narrow the focus to Poponak’s discussions with several key defense firms:
RTX Corp. (RTX; Neutral):
We attended the RTX investor event on 6/16. The company discussed its key platforms in the commercial and defense businesses, the opportunities it sees to expand and improve content, and how it can leverage data and AI to improve manufacturing efficiency and part effectiveness.
Woodward Inc. (WWD; Buy – on Conviction List):
We hosted a group dinner meeting with Woodward Director of Investor Relations – Daniel Provaznik. Investor conversation spanned WWD’s portfolio, covering LEAP content gains, JDAM, the industrial businesses, and the recent Airbus announcement. We also hosted an investor meeting with CFO Bill Lacey, Daniel Provaznik, and Market Analysis and Stratety Manager Scott Davis on 6/16.
GE Aerospace (GE; Buy):
We hosted Rahul Ghai (CFO) and Blaire Shoor (Head of IR).
CAE Inc. (CAE; Buy):
We hosted Andrew Arnovitz (Senior VP Investor Relations).
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM; Buy):
We hosted Ken Giacobbe (CFO) and Paul Luther (VP Investor Relations).
On a related note, we flagged the emergence of a “hemispheric defense” theme last month — marking the rise of all things defense as the world fractures into an increasingly dangerous bi-polar state.
