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Bitcoin accumulator addresses just set a new all-time high by purchasing over 375,000 BTC in 30 days, with more than 50,000 BTC added yesterday alone, according to CryptoQuant analysis.
The aggressive buying persists even as overall market demand has slowed, while Bitcoin hovers around $101,000 amid extreme fear and a 37-day government shutdown that’s draining $15 billion weekly from U.S. GDP.
The monthly average for these long-term holder wallets has more than doubled in under two months, surging from 130,000 to 262,000 BTC.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin whales added nearly 30,000 BTC, worth approximately $3 billion, this week, contrasting sharply with retail panic and ETF outflows that have dominated headlines following BTC’s 20% pullback from its October all-time high of $126,198.
Market Signals Point to Accumulation Zone Despite Fear
Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio now stands at around 1.8, its lowest level since April 2025, indicating that the market value is approaching the average cost basis of investors.
Historically, when the MVRV falls to the 1.8-2.0 range, it typically coincides with mid-term market bottoms or early phases of recovery.
At the same time, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio has dropped to its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating abundant dry powder ready to be deployed into BTC.
The Fear & Greed Index has also plunged to “Extreme Fear” territory, near 20, as over $1.7 billion in positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, mostly from over-leveraged long positions.
However, exchange reserves continue to trend lower, which means coins are being withdrawn into self-custody rather than sold off, a behavior that historically aligns with stabilization phases.
The Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio’s 90-day simple moving average sits at 9.4, marking a mild cooldown since July, yet still more than double the levels seen during the last two mid-cycle bear phases.
Notably, on Binance futures, large support clusters have formed, with 700 BTC in limit orders sitting at $100,500. Meanwhile, a 1,000 BTC order at $102,000 was recently filled, which means institutions are still heavily participating.
Macro Headwinds Reshape Ownership Ratio
Bitcoin’s ownership structure has transformed dramatically as entity-scale holders surged their holdings 21.7% to 7.05 million BTC following spot ETF approval in January 2024, while retail holders reduced their balances by roughly 20% to 3.4 million BTC.
Uphold’s head of blockchain research, Martin Hiesboeck, attributes the shift to whales moving billions into regulated ETFs, drawn by tax advantages and easier access to institutional services, marking the first time self-custody may be declining in Bitcoin’s history.
Notably, Crypto trader Alex Kruger outlined a cautious market outlook, noting that the government shutdown poses near-term headwinds until it is resolved, estimated to occur sometime between the end of next week and Thanksgiving. Afterward, he expects “BTC +5% or more within 48 hours of deal.”
The December 10 FOMC meeting could prove hawkish as most Fed officials favor a pause not currently priced in, while a potential new Fed chair nomination before year-end could prove “bullish to very bullish.”
Analysts Divided on Whether Bull Market Has Ended
Market sentiment has turned overwhelmingly negative following Bitcoin’s first October loss in seven years, with the 3.69% decline drawing nervous comparisons to 2018 when BTC plunged 36.6% in November after a similar October drop.
Market analyst Ted Pillows warned that crypto markets are heading lower, stating that “there’s a time to be bullish. Now is not that time.”
FXTM’s senior market analyst, Lukman Otunuga, told Cryptonews that it has been a “rough and rocky” few weeks, with sellers striking at every opportunity, and cumulative ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion since October 29.
While gold and the S&P 500 have clocked year-to-date returns of 52% and 15%, respectively, Bitcoin’s lagging at 8%, with Otunuga warning that a “solid move below $95,000” could lead to BTC’s first negative year since 2022.
The Coin Bureau’s co-founder Nic Puckrin offered a more balanced view, telling Cryptonews that a sustained drop below $100,000 “is possible, but certainly not inevitable,” arguing that OG Bitcoiners are “simply taking profits after holding for a long time” rather than losing confidence.
Puckrin cautioned that “many digital asset treasuries will sell in a downturn, because they have raised funds under specific terms and will need to meet those obligations, regardless of the price of BTC,” which could amplify selloffs through leverage.
