The Dalai Lama’s refusal of outside interference is “a message to China and its supporters, and one that is likely to infuriate Beijing,” said Robert Barnett, a Tibet expert at SOAS University of London.
“China is likely to dispute the Dalai Lama’s decision in any way that it can, and that will mean forcing Tibetans inside Tibet to denounce it and pressurizing foreign governments to prevent Tibetan exiles from carrying out a future search for the reincarnation,” he said.
China’s Foreign Ministry on Wednesday repeated its position that the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation must be approved by the central government in Beijing. “Tibetan Buddhism was born in China and is a religion with Chinese characteristics,” spokesperson Mao Ning said at a news briefing.
The atheist Chinese Communist Party, which annexed Tibet in 1951, has in recent years, stepped up its long-standing efforts to influence the Tibetan Buddhist religion and forcibly assimilate the population in Tibet as part of a broader effort to control ethnic and religious minorities. It replicated many of these practices during a fierce crackdown on the Muslim Uyghur population in the Xinjiang region.
The Dalai Lama fled Tibet in 1959 after a failed popular uprising against Chinese control, and relocated to northern India, where he set up a government-in-exile in Dharamshala. In 1989, he was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize “for advocating peaceful solutions based upon tolerance and mutual respect.”
Despite Beijing’s long shadow, Tibetan Buddhist leaders have been celebrating the Dalai Lama’s long life during the gathering this week.
Under Tibetan tradition, the Dalai Lama’s successor is found through the process of reincarnation, by which the religious leader is reborn in another person’s body after his death.
Tenzin Gyatso, the current 14th Dalai Lama, was born in northeastern Tibet, in what is today the western Chinese province of Qinghai. He was recognized as the reincarnation of the previous Tibetan leader at the age of 2.
Though the Dalai Lama has previously written that his successor will be born outside of China in the “free world,” his Wednesday statement made no mention of this — an omission some analysts viewed as an attempt not to provoke China more than necessary.
Beijing views the upcoming period of transition to a new Dalai Lama as a “strategic opportunity” to further cement its control over Tibet, said Chemi Lhamo, a New York-based Tibetan activist. However, she thinks China’s view is mistaken.
“The Tibetan people and the Tibetan resistance and resilience has existed long before the institution of His Holiness the Dalai Lama,” she said.
Reincarnation can lead to a vacuum of leadership if the successor is a young child when they are identified — potentially leading to a long gap before the monk grows up and takes the reins of power. Some have speculated that the Dalai Lama could avoid this issue by identifying an adult successor, but many experts agree that the more traditional process of reincarnation is likely to prevail.
China has interfered in Tibetan spiritual processes before. After the reincarnation of the Panchen Lama, the second-ranking Tibetan Buddhist leader, was identified in 1995, the young child disappeared and Beijing appointed its own Panchen Lama.
The Chinese government claims that the young boy that Tibetans had appointed — who came to be known as the world’s youngest political prisoner — grew up to graduate from college and live a “normal life.”
Ahead of the birthday celebrations for the Dalai Lama, Chinese leader Xi Jinping met with the Beijing-appointed Panchen Lama and encouraged him to “systematically promote the sinicization of religion in China and promote the modernization of Tibet,” according to state media.
On Sunday, the state propaganda apparatus trumpeted Xi’s message urging Tibetan villagers to “to uphold ethnic solidarity and create a happier and better life.”
In the decades since the Dalai Lama fled Tibet, China has implemented a vast campaign of state control in Tibet, and has been accused by governments and activist organizations of human rights abuses and cultural repression. The Chinese Communist Party strictly controls access to Tibet and bans Tibetans from displaying photos of the Dalai Lama.
“The Chinese Communist Party has systematically undermined Tibetan culture, religion, and traditions,” said Khenpo Sonam Tenphel, speaker of the Tibetan parliament-in-exile.
Tibetan children face abuse, neglect, indoctrination, and the erasure of their identities at boarding schools run by the Chinese state, Tibet Action Institute, an international human rights group, said in a recent report.
Children are separated from their families and forced to speak Mandarin, part of an effort to forcibly assimilate Tibetans that threatens their survival as a distinct people, the group said.
In the run-up to the Dharamshala gathering, Beijing has ramped up the propaganda machine and placed Tibetan villages under particularly “tight security,” according to Tenphel.
Chen Wenqing, a top law enforcement official and secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission, last month visited Qinghai province and emphasized the importance of maintaining security and stability during sensitive moments. He underscored the need to “resolutely win the anti-secession struggle involving Tibet,” according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua.
Barnett described Chen’s comments as “combative” and said they indicate the importance Beijing is placing on the Dalai Lama’s speech, even though his comments were largely expected.
“They’re reacting in what appears to be a very heavy-handed way in anticipation of this statement,” he said.
The Dalai Lama has attempted to negotiate with Beijing for decades under his “Middle Way” approach, which advocates for increased autonomy for Tibetans in China but does not push for Tibetan independence. This diplomatic effort has not been successful, and it remains unclear how the Dalai Lama’s successor will approach dialogue with Beijing.
“I have tried my best, ceaselessly, to make openings for a negotiated settlement with Beijing,” the Dalai Lama wrote in an opinion article in The Washington Post in March. “In fact, through my envoys, I have presented to Beijing a road map that outlines how a mutually satisfactory resolution of the long-standing issue of Tibet could be achieved … The Tibetan people have no choice but to persist in our just struggle.”
Penpa Tsering, the head of Tibet’s government-in-exile, told a news conference Wednesday that “there are some back channels which are not official” with Beijing but all the Chinese government’s policies in Tibet are aimed at “destroying the identity of the Tibetan people.”
