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Bitcoin has been consolidating since late November, struggling to establish a clear directional bias as the market searches for stability ahead of the next volatility wave. After failing to sustain momentum above the October 2025 highs, price action has shifted into a broad range, reflecting growing uncertainty among investors. While some market participants interpret this pause as a potential base for continuation, others remain cautious, pointing to historical bear market behavior for context.
According to a report by top analyst Axel Adler, the current Bitcoin drawdown from the October peak remains historically shallow. The Bitcoin Bear Market Correction Drawdowns chart, which compares drawdown depth across cycles since 2011, highlights how different this cycle has been so far. In the ongoing 2025+ cycle, the drawdown stands at roughly -27%, with the maximum correction reaching about -33%.
By contrast, previous bear markets were far more severe: the 2011 cycle collapsed by -92%, both the 2013-2015 and 2017-2018 cycles saw drawdowns near -82%, and the 2021-2022 bear market bottomed around -75%.
This relative resilience may point to a structural shift in Bitcoin’s market dynamics. The growing presence of spot ETFs and institutional capital could be dampening volatility and reducing the magnitude of corrections. Still, Adler cautions that the current bear phase is relatively young. As a result, it remains too early to conclude that Bitcoin has definitively entered a new regime where deep drawdowns are no longer part of the cycle.
Adler further explains that the Bitcoin Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model offers critical context for evaluating where the market currently sits within the broader cycle. CVDD is a long-term on-chain valuation framework derived from “destroyed” coin days, which captures periods when older, long-held coins are spent. Historically, this behavior has been closely associated with major market transitions and macro bottoms.
The CVDD chart plots Bitcoin’s price against several valuation bands, including the base CVDD level and its 5x and 10x multiples. At present, Bitcoin is trading near $91,000, which places it at roughly 2x above the base CVDD, currently estimated at around $46,600. This zone has historically aligned with bear market bottom formation phases rather than full capitulation events. In past cycles, deep undervaluation and panic selling typically occurred when the price approached or briefly dipped below the base CVDD level.
The fact that Bitcoin remains well above this fundamental support suggests that the market has not yet entered a true capitulation regime. Instead, long-term holders appear largely intact, and selling pressure from older coins remains relatively contained. As Adler notes, the base CVDD level continues to act as a long-term structural floor for the asset.
Taken together, the shallow drawdown profile and Bitcoin’s position above key CVDD valuation bands indicate that the ongoing correction is real but still consistent with an early-stage bear cycle, rather than a fully developed market bottom.
