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Crypto’s Trump-era boom faces a 2026 reality check

Last updated: December 18, 2025 10:20 pm
Published: 4 months ago
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It has been a year of policy victories, but crypto firms warn momentum could fade without durable US legislation.

Trump’s second presidential term by swilling cocktails and partying to Snoop Dogg at a pre-inauguration event in January, the crypto industry went on to notch major legislative and regulatory victories this year.

Among the industry’s biggest wins under Trump’s crypto-friendly second administration were the Securities and Exchange Commission’s swift move to rescind stringent crypto accounting guidance and dismiss Joe Biden-era lawsuits againstA top bank regulator also eased rules on banks’ crypto dealings and conditionally approved bank licences for crypto firms. Along with Trump’s creation of a bitcoin stockpile and the SEC’s approval of a raft of new crypto products, the changes together helped propel bitcoin to new peaks this year and pave the way for wider crypto adoption, sparking warnings from critics over potential investor and systemic risks. But crypto market structure legislation and carve-outs from SEC rules that should fix core, longstanding problems for the industry are yet to come, threatening to sap the industry’s celebratory mood, according to multiple industry executives, some of whom spoke at a Reuters Next event earlier this month. “This year’s been a good year for crypto … notwithstanding that there’s a lot of work left to be done,” said Miller Whitehouse-Levine, CEO of the Solana Policy Institute, which advocates for policies to advance blockchain networks.Trump courted industry cash pledging to be a “crypto president”, and his family’s own crypto ventures have helped to propel the sector into the mainstream, say executives. Just days into his presidency, the SEC swiftly ended a yearslong crackdown during which it sued dozens of crypto companies it alleged should have registered with the agency. The industry said those lawsuits were unfair because most crypto tokens more closely resemble commodities than securities. Aiming to get that position enshrined in law, crypto companies and executives donated more than US$245-million in the 2024 election cycle to promote pro-crypto candidates including Trump, according to Federal Election Commission data.The industry inched closer to that goal in July when the house of representatives passed a bill that would, among other things, define when tokens are securities, commodities or otherwise, giving the industry long-hoped-for legal clarity. But that has stalled in the senate, with lawmakers divided over provisions on anti-money-laundering and requirements for decentralised finance platforms, which allow crypto users to buy and sell tokens without an intermediary, according to three sources familiar with discussions. “The big elephant in the room is that this industry has spent millions of dollars trying to get legislation across the line,” but it is uncertain that it will score that key victory, said Sheila Warren, CEO of the tech-focused nonprofit Project Liberty Institute. With congress already pivoting to focus on the 2026 midterm elections, in which the Democrats could take the house, that bill may not make it into law, said lobbyists. That would leave crypto firms to rely on regulatory guidance that could be overturned under a hostile future administration, potentially exposing companies to legal challenges or forcing them to curtail their US businesses. With increasing clarity, institutional investors should become much more comfortable entering the space Long-term, the industry cannot rely on pro-crypto administrations, said David Mercer, CEO of LMAX Group, which operates a crypto exchange. “We need the market structure bill.” A spokesman for Tim Scott, the chair of the senate banking committee that’s co-writing the senate’s version of the bill, said the committee is negotiating and “looks forward” to advancing the legislation in “early 2026”. In the meantime, crypto firms are turning their attention to regulatory fixes, especially an SEC “innovation exemption”. Trump’s SEC chair, Paul Atkins, has said the framework, which he expects to unveil next year, will allow crypto companies immediately to launch new business models, but it is unclear how broad in scope it will be. Mercer said that exemption could give projects, such as token issuers, “room to breathe” without fearing SEC prosecution. The SEC did not provide comment.Crypto companies also expect that increased coordination between the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will streamline oversight across crypto products. That should get under way soon with Trump’s CFTC chair nominee, Michael Selig, who is currently an adviser to Atkins, poised to be confirmed by the senate.

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