The ongoing weakness in Bitcoin price may be more than a temporary pullback, according to new on-chain analysis from CryptoQuant.
Woo Minkyu, a verified author on the platform, says market data is increasingly aligning with conditions of past bear market transitions.
Woo points to the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum Indicator (BCMI), which returned to the 0.5 zone on October 21. At the time, this move was interpreted as a normal cooling phase rather than a cycle top.
However, since then, Bitcoin’s price has declined by more than 30%, with BCMI falling alongside it. According to Woo, this confirms that the market has not only cooled over time but has also undergone a reset, as evidenced by both price action and on-chain momentum.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $86,900 after dipping 32% from its all time high of $126,198.
Historically, major Bitcoin cycle bottoms have formed when BCMI dropped into the 0.25-0.35 range. This occurred during the 2019 and 2023 lows.
At current levels, BCMI is already below its equilibrium zone but remains well above those historical bottom ranges. This suggests the market may still be in transition rather than at a completed reset point.
From a data-driven perspective, Woo explains that this setup raises the possibility that Bitcoin is entering a bear phase rather than experiencing a standard correction. If history holds, a more durable bottom may form only if BCMI revisits levels seen during previous bear market lows.
He stresses that this is not a price forecast but rather a scenario investors should be aware of under current market conditions.
Separately, CryptoQuant analyst GugaOnChain noted that Bitcoin network activity has been declining and speculative trading has eased. Both are common signs of a bear market.
Data shows fewer transactions, lower network fees, and a decline in highly active addresses. This suggests reduced demand for Bitcoin’s network and fewer large traders or institutions actively participating. These conditions often occur during quiet accumulation phases, when investors are cautious.
GugaOnChain noted that the current situation resembles the 2018 bear market, which was also characterized by low activity and low fees. However, Bitcoin’s network is significantly stronger today, with more users than at that time, which could help limit the extent of price declines.
Looking ahead, analyst Ali Martinez predicts that Bitcoin may not reach its final market bottom until around October 2026. He sees a possible decline of up to 70% to approximately $37,500.
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