How high will Aster go? Technical indicators and prediction market data show mixed signals.
After a choppy start to the week, the crypto market is slowly inching back upwards today.
But with Bitcoin and most other major cryptocurrencies stuck in rangebound trading, there’s one coin out there getting degens excited: the Hyperliquid rival, Aster.
The Aster token is currently trading at a $3.8 billion market cap, and an $18 billion fully diluted valuation, after debuting just one week ago.
Here’s what’s going on, what the charts have to say about Aster’s rapid rise:
Aster is the native token of a decentralized perpetual futures exchange by the same name that’s challenging Hyperliquid’s dominance in the sector. It runs on multiple blockchains, including Ethereum and Solana, but it primarily exists on BNB Chain, formerly known as Binance Chain.
Aster, the exchange, has been around for over a year, but activity on the platform exploded following the launch of the Aster token, which trades as ASTER, last week on BNB Chain. Since then, Aster, the DEX, has flipped Hyperliquid in daily volume and revenue, generating $534 million in volume and over $7 million in revenue in the last 24 hours, according to DefiLlama.
The Aster token today is up almost 20%, trading at around $2.30, after skyrocketing by over 2,000% in value since its launch on September 17. It’s a remarkable rally that seems to only be intensifying. The token has already reached a market cap above $3 billion — enough to claim the number 35 spot among all coins on CoinMarketCap, and the 47th spot on CoinGecko. (These indexes track different cryptocurrencies outside of the top 25 or so.)
The technical picture for ASTER shows powerful bullish momentum. It’s worth noting, though, that since the token is only a week old, technical analysis isn’t as reliable as it typically is for assets with more trading history.
Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index, or RSI, for Aster stands at 65, which indicates strong buying pressure. RSI measures momentum on a scale of 0-100, where readings above 70 typically signal overbought conditions that often precede pullbacks. At 65, Aster still has room to run before hitting levels where profit-taking typically emerges.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, for the Aster token is at 34, which confirms a strong trending environment. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction, with readings above 25 indicating a confirmed trend. At 34, we’re seeing powerful directional movement for Aster that traders typically use as confirmation to stay with the trend rather than fight it. This suggests the recent momentum isn’t just noise but represents genuine market conviction.
The Squeeze Momentum Indicator shows “off” status, indicating that price volatility has already been released and the current movement will continue for at least a short time, though potentially at a slower pace until a new contraction happens. Again, in young coins, this analysis is prone to inaccuracies, and traders looking for signals on very short time frames may be better off relying on price supports and resistances until other indicators gain more time to provide solid readings.
A lot of the excitement around Aster right now appears to be driven by the rewards program that the Binance-backed DEX has planned. The Aster token launched with an airdrop for early users, and the exchange has teased future rewards for current users, along with a token buyback program using revenue generated from trading fees.
But if sentiment signals are what you’re after, then there’s some insight to be gained from action on prediction markets for the token at the moment.
On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, users currently believe there’s a very strong chance Aster maintains its spot in the top 40 coins on CoinMarketCap by the end of the week, placing odds at above 87%. And those odds have risen rapidly over the last few days, up from just 35% on Monday, as you might expect with the coin jumping in value.
Myriad users are also placing roughly 40% odds that Aster continues its rapid rise up the ranks and doubles again in price before November, hitting a price of $4 per coin. That would be enough to claim a nearly $7 billion market cap and a spot near the top 30 coins.
Will it get there? Crypto markets are fickle, but the charts are bullish, and crazier things have happened.
