Crypto market sentiment remained resilient even as Bitcoin fell nearly 2% over the past 24 hours, trading around the $105,000 mark.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which gauges market mood, registered a “Greed” score of 63 out of 100 on Wednesday—down just one point from Tuesday. This came as Bitcoin dipped 1.79% to $105,560, retreating from a near $108,000 high the previous day, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Sentiment stays strong heading into historically weak Q3
Crypto analysts continue to debate when Bitcoin might retest its all-time high of $111,970, set on May 22. Optimism was high on Monday as the price hovered just under $109,000, but it soon slipped into another short-term downtrend.
Some analysts have pointed out that the third quarter, which began on July 1, tends to be a weaker period for Bitcoin.
“Historically, this quarter is generally the slowest for both $BTC and $ETH,” crypto trader Daan Crypto Trades noted on Tuesday.
Data from CoinGlass shows that since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged a 5.47% gain during Q3. If that pattern continues, Bitcoin could reach around $111,000 by September 30—just below its all-time high of $111,970.
Daan attributed the softer performance to the “slower summer months,” typically marked by lower trading activity, volume, and liquidity.
Bitcoin’s Q2 performance aligned with its historical average gains
Bitcoin’s second-quarter performance closely mirrored its historical average, ending June with a 31% gain at $108,383 — about 4% above the typical 27% Q2 return since 2014. Notably, it also closed June with its highest monthly candle on record.
Several indicators suggest the market remains firmly tilted in Bitcoin’s favor. Bitcoin dominance has climbed to around 65.5%, up nearly 13% year-to-date, according to TradingView. CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index further reflects this trend, registering a score of just 20 out of 100 — firmly placing the market in “Bitcoin Season.”
Still, some signs of caution have emerged. CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, noted on Wednesday that their Bitcoin Bull Score Metric has slipped into neutral territory.
“The Bitcoin Bull Score is now at 50 — neutral. It needs to hit 60 or higher to support a sustained rally,” Moreno said.
