The crypto market opened July with a modest pullback after a volatile night, continuing the consolidation seen at the end of June.
The total market cap is down about 2.8 percent since yesterday morning, with Bitcoin holding near 107,000 dollars and most major altcoins posting losses, except for a few outliers with extraordinary moves.
Bitcoin remains the anchor for market sentiment, closing June at a record monthly high of 107,100 dollars, but forming a spinning top candlestick pattern, signaling market indecision and potential for short-term volatility.
ETF inflows continue to be a dominant force. Bitcoin ETFs saw 2.2 billion dollars in inflows last week, marking 14 consecutive days of net positive flows and bringing year-to-date inflows to 14.9 billion dollars, which is 84 percent of all crypto ETP inflows so far in 2025.
Ethereum, after a volatile end to June, is trading just above 2,450 dollars, pressured by record spot ETF outflows, especially a 19.7 million dollar single-day outflow from BlackRock’s ETHA ETF on Friday.
However, Grayscale and VanEck ETH products saw inflows, reflecting mixed institutional sentiment. Altcoins underperformed, with most large caps in the red.
Notably, HFT and MGO posted extraordinary gains, while NODE surged over 845 percent on low liquidity. On the downside, SAHARA, NEWT, DMC, and ARB saw steep declines, mostly attributed to profit-taking, low liquidity, and lack of fresh catalysts.
ETF and ETP flows remain the primary driver for Bitcoin and Ethereum, with Bitcoin ETPs accounting for 84 percent of all crypto ETP inflows in the first half of 2025. XRP is the third-largest gainer in ETP inflows, despite its spot ETF still pending in the United States.
On the technical side, Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows price consolidating above key support at 106,740 dollars, with resistance at 107,776 dollars. The MACD is trending lower, showing weakening momentum. RSI is at 45.71, indicating mild bearishness but not oversold.
Price is close to the lower Bollinger Band, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce if support holds. The daily chart shows Bitcoin above the 200-day moving average at 96,288 dollars, confirming the long-term uptrend.
MACD is positive but flattening, showing waning bullish momentum. RSI at 53.50 is neutral, suggesting consolidation rather than a strong trend. The Ichimoku Cloud provides support at 104,414 to 105,120 dollars. A break below could trigger further downside.
Ethereum is struggling to reclaim 2,500 dollars after a volatile dip and large ETF outflows. MACD and RSI both indicate consolidation with a slight bearish tilt. Key support is at 2,420 to 2,430 dollars, resistance at 2,480 to 2,500 dollars.
Institutional flows are mixed, with BlackRock’s outflows weighing on sentiment, but Grayscale and VanEck still seeing inflows. XRP trades at 2.21 dollars, holding within the 1.84 to 2.27 dollar range.
Institutional inflows remain strong, but price action is capped by resistance at 2.25 to 2.45 dollars. Technicals suggest room for upside if 2.25 dollars is broken, with 2.95 dollars as the next major target.
Open interest and derivatives volume are high, indicating strong trader engagement. Solana trades at 151.15 dollars, flat on the day. It remains in a consolidation range of 119 to 152 dollars, with ETF speculation providing a bullish undertone.
Technicals suggest a breakout above 171 dollars could trigger a move to 204 dollars. Volume is cooling, which could signal accumulation ahead of a catalyst such as ETF approval.
Litecoin is stabilizing around 85 dollars, with bearish signals from profit-taking and whale selling. RSI is below 50, indicating bearish momentum. Key support is at 77.19 dollars. Failure to reclaim 91.61 dollars could see further downside.
Market participants remain focused on ETF flows, key technical levels, and macroeconomic signals. The combination of record institutional inflows and cautious technical indicators points to a market in consolidation, with investors waiting for a decisive move.
For now, Bitcoin’s resilience at the 107,000 dollar level stands out, but the charts warn that momentum is fragile and the next trend will depend on both market structure and external economic forces.
