Bitcoin (BTC) remained under pressure on Friday as markets digested a sharp breakdown below its 365-day moving average — a level that has so far defined the floor of the ongoing cycle. The Fear and Greed Index, currently at 21, analysts believe, signals deeply fearful sentiment — often viewed as a potential buying opportunity. However, spot flows remain muted, while ETF outflows have continued for four consecutive sessions.
Altcoins mirrored Bitcoin’s weakness but largely held within key support zones. Ethereum (ETH) briefly tested $3,250 before recovering modestly, while XRP and Hyperliquid led the declines with losses of around 5 per cent. For Ethereum, derivatives positioning has reset meaningfully, with open interest still subdued and funding largely neutral. Such conditions, analysts believe, typically precede a base formation rather than a fresh bout of panic.
“This points to a lack of incremental institutional demand. On-chain data confirms heavier selling from older wallets, but exchange withdrawals have also spiked. This indicates that part of the selling pressure is being absorbed by long-term holders rotating supply off exchanges. Overall, market structure is weak but not yet broken, with realised losses still well below past capitulation levels,” said Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus.
Subburaj added that macroeconomic conditions are adding headwinds rather than relief. The US dollar has stayed firm after stronger-than-expected jobs data reduced the odds of a December rate cut, while global equity markets have turned defensive. Gold has rebounded towards $4,000 as investors move to safety.
“Liquidity metrics such as M2 and real yields hint at an approaching expansion phase, but sentiment remains fragile. Unless ETF flows stabilise or the US Federal Reserve signals a clearer easing path, crypto’s rebound potential will likely remain capped in the short term,” Subburaj noted.
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Echoing similar views, Riya Sehgal, research analyst at Delta Exchange, said the crypto market has entered a corrective phase, with total capitalisation down over 6 per cent this week and liquidations exceeding $580 million in the past 24 hours.
“Market weakness is being compounded by ETF outflows and slower institutional demand, with investors’ short-term risk appetite declining after recent liquidation events. Broader equity markets are also under pressure, with Asia and Wall Street posting sharp losses, while traders remain cautious ahead of potential Federal Reserve moves,” Sehgal said.
Analysts see $97,000 as Bitcoin’s risk line
At the time of writing, Bitcoin price was trading at $102,081.24, down 1.24 per cent over the past 24 hours, with a trading volume of $68.92 billion. The token has oscillated between $100,336 and $103,575 during the session, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Subburaj advised investors to treat $102,000 as the pivot and $97,000 as the risk line. “Act on reclaims or closes back above $102,000. If we lose $97,000 on rising spot selling, step back and wait for stability. This is a spot-led drawdown (ETF outflows, soft flows, Fear & Greed at 21). Prefer spot/TWAP adds over leverage, and keep hard, pre-set exits rather than averaging down,” he said.
From a technical standpoint, Sehgal believes Bitcoin remains under pressure, facing a strong resistance wall at $105,000, with immediate resistance between $103,500-$104,000.
“A sustained move below $100,000 could test support at $98,800, keeping the short-term trend bearish,” Sehgal added.
Ethereum continues to consolidate
Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to consolidate after multiple failed recovery attempts, with downside targets seen around $3,150-$3,050. As of the latest check, ETH was trading down 1 per cent at $3,353, with a 24-hour trading volume of $37.23 billion. The token has fluctuated between $3,245 and $3,412.03 in the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Ethereum remains about 32 per cent below its all-time high of $4,953, reached earlier this year on August 25.
For ETH, analysts said a decisive close above $3,500 would be needed to shift momentum back towards recovery.
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