After spending 18 days at the lowest level of a widely followed crypto market sentiment gauge, the market is now showing the first signs of improved sentiment.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index — a tool used to track overall market mood — recorded a “Fear” score of 28 on Saturday. It’s the first time since Nov. 10 that the index has risen above “Extreme Fear.”
The extended stay near the index’s most bearish territory for much of November — a month that has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest on average — didn’t escape the notice of the broader crypto community.
“Extreme Fear” often signals market bottoms, analysts say
On Nov. 15, analyst Matthew Hyland noted that the index had reached its “most extreme fear level” of the entire cycle, warning that a similar trajectory for BTC dominance could trigger “max pain.” A few days later, on Nov. 23, analyst Crypto Seth added that calling the sentiment “Extreme Fear” was “an understatement.”
Even so, trader Nicola Duke highlighted that historically, every occurrence of extreme fear on the index has signaled a “local bottom” for Bitcoin.
Additional indicators now suggest that market sentiment may be starting to recover. On Wednesday, analytics platform Santiment noted that Bitcoin was showing “generally bullish sentiment” after climbing back toward $92,000, pointing to its social media bullish-to-bearish sentiment ratio.
Crypto market still showing risk-off behavior
Despite pockets of optimism, the broader market remains cautious. Santiment observed that social media discussions about Bitcoin continue to center on price volatility and institutional involvement, including ETF flows and treasury purchases.
Meanwhile, CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Season Index indicates that participants are still in risk-off mode. The index currently reads 22 out of 100 — firmly within “Bitcoin Season” — suggesting that traders favor Bitcoin over higher-risk altcoins.
On Friday, André Dragosch, head of research for Bitwise Europe, said Bitcoin’s price remains out of sync with macroeconomic conditions, driven in part by increasing expectations of an approaching recession.
“The last time I saw such an asymmetric risk-reward was during COVID,” Dragosch said.
