If you’re confused about where crypto stands right now, you’re not alone. 1 Even seasoned analysts are struggling to read the mixed market signals. Some metrics strongly suggest a bottom has formed. However, others hint that a deeper correction is still on the table. Today I’m going to simplify the noise. I will focus only on the most historically reliable indicators.
So, I’ll break down the hidden signals suggesting crypto may be forming a bottom. I will also point out red flags that point to potential weakness. By the end, you’ll know if this is real recovery… or a pause before more pain.
The crypto market is showing clear weakness right now. Prices are not stable. Volatility has increased across major assets. Bitcoin even faces a possible drop toward the $84k level if support breaks. That means that we’re back to the price of 1 year ago.
This comes at a strange time. Almost all recent news has been bullish. The Fed mentioned that QT ends in early December. We also saw the end of the US government shutdown.
Both support risk assets, but crypto has not priced this in yet. This creates a bullish setup, even if prices are currently weak. At the same time, stablecoin supply on exchanges and off-chain wallets remains high. This means buyers could step in fast once confidence improves. Yet prices continue to fall.
Be aware that ending QT doesn’t automatically mean a big liquidity surge. Stopping tightening is not the same as injecting full extra liquidity or QE. However, if these two factors become more broadly accepted by investors, there may still be hidden upside. The market has not yet fully reflected those tailwinds. Hence, the market may not have this priced in yet.
The answer lies in market structure. Liquidity is thin. Large holders are moving carefully. Many traders are overleveraged, which creates sharp moves when funding flips. Many $BTC OGs have been selling. At the same time, macro pressure remains. Rates are still high, and risk assets feel that strain. This creates a split between sentiment and price.
Investors expect good news to push the market higher, but the data shows stress under the surface. When bullish headlines meet weak liquidity, prices can drop fast. This is the phase where the market flushes excess risk before any real trend can form. So, let’s take a closer look at some of these indicators.
So, it looks like for the short term, the dip is over. However, for the long-term, it depends on what Trump will be doing. Nothing in Trump’s policy is short-term bearish. Right now, his actions are firmly bullish for Bitcoin’s multi-year trajectory.
However, he also made sure to enrich himself with crypto. There were, of course, the $TRUMP and $MELANIA memecoins. This extracted a lot of liquidity from the market. There’s also the World Liberty Financial platform, with a massive Trump family influence.
Nonetheless, the general crypto market has not seen that much benefit. If you compare where altcoins were when his presidency started and where they are now, it’s scary. Most alts lost between 50% and 75% or more.
The results are mixed when looking at on-chain data. For example,
1. $BTC indicators suggest that $BTC is undervalued below $94k.
The only bearish angle is short-term miner capitulation. This typically resolves into upward moves.
3. Transaction metrics suggest mass capitulation of $BTC (only). For the short-term, this is slightly bearish because: capitulation = final selling pressure. However, for the long-term, this is strongly bullish: capitulation = cycle reset. Capitulation is like cleansing the order books. After that, even small buys can push the price up aggressively.
It’s also a good time to take a closer look at some charts. Here’s the first one.
Most of the time, Bitcoin long liquidation is more than that of $ETH. However, in the past few days, we have seen long liquidations of $BTC and short liquidations on $ETH. This means that $ETH bears are getting tired. It’s a classic case of the dump being over.
The volume of perpetual has not gone up since the dip. It means bears are not shorting. In other words, bears are not bearish at this point.
There’s a continuous negative premium on Coinbase. This means that U.S. investors (including institutions) are selling more than buying. This puts downward pressure on the $BTC price. So, short-term, it’s bearish. However, let’s take a look at the long-term meaning. Once U.S. sellers exhaust, negative premiums often flip positive. This shift has historically marked local bottoms and strong recovery phases.
MVRV shows how much profit the average BTC holder has.
Right now, it’s around 1.8, not 1.5. It’s easier for the indicator to drop from 1.8 → 1.5 than to rise from 1.8 → 2.4. So the market could still move downward before it becomes strongly bullish again. So, in the short to mid-term, it’s a bearish bias. However, for the long-term, it’s a healthy or bullish setup.
So, most indicators are short-term bearish. However, for the long-term view, these same indicators are bullish. In other words, yes, the pain can increase. However, towards the end of the year and during Q 1 2026, sentiment may turn around.
What do you think, is the bear market here, or is there still a fight left in the bulls? Let me know in the comments and join our discussions on X and Discord.
The information discussed by Altcoin Buzz is not financial advice. This is for educational, entertainment and informational purposes only. Any information or strategies are thoughts and opinions relevant to accepted levels of risk tolerance of the writer/reviewers, and their risk tolerance may be different from yours.
We are not responsible for any losses that you may incur as a result of any investments directly or indirectly related to the information provided. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are high-risk investments, so please do your due diligence.
