Analysts and investors are increasingly questioning why crypto has failed to enter a bull market despite a wave of positive developments this year.
“At some point, we need to admit that something is structurally broken in the crypto market,” CNBC crypto contributor Ran Neuner said on Tuesday.
He pointed to several factors that should be supporting crypto prices, including rising liquidity, a pro-crypto U.S. government stance, the launch of multiple exchange-traded funds, significant investments from institutions and crypto treasury companies, and strong performance in traditional markets such as gold, silver, and major stock indexes.
Despite these tailwinds, the crypto market is on pace to finish the year in the red. Total market capitalization has dropped more than 32% from its all-time high of $4.4 trillion in early October and is down nearly 13% since the start of the year.
Two possible outcomes for crypto
Neuner said the crypto market is facing two possible scenarios: either investors identify “what’s actually broken and who is selling,” or the market experiences the “mother of all catch-up trades,” as prices realign with fundamentals.
Meanwhile, economist Adam Kobeissi suggested that clarity will eventually emerge from the recent turmoil. “One day, we will look back at the last two months of what felt like daily mass crypto liquidations,” he said, “and everything happening now will be crystal clear.”
“Crypto is experiencing a structural shift amid historic levels of leverage.”
Analyst PlanB described the current environment as an “epic battle until sellers are out of ammo,” noting that selling pressure continues to come from long-term holders still scarred by the 2021 cycle, technically driven traders watching indicators like the relative strength index, and investors who adhere to the four-year cycle theory and believe a bear market is imminent.
Crypto winter is already here
Meanwhile, some analysts argue that the bear market has already begun.
“Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming the first major risk asset to price in a slowing economy,” said 10x Research CEO Markus Thielen.
“Retail participation never meaningfully returned this cycle, and value creation remained narrowly concentrated in Bitcoin rather than broadening across risk assets. Winter isn’t approaching; it has already arrived.”
Things aren’t as bad as they seem
Despite weak performance in spot markets, crypto’s underlying fundamentals remain strong.
“While prices may have fallen short of expectations, this year delivered more structural progress than any in crypto’s history,” Erik Lowe, head of content at blockchain venture firm Pantera, said in a report on Tuesday.
Echoing Neuner, Lowe highlighted several major milestones achieved this year, including changes in leadership and policy direction at U.S. financial regulators, the creation of a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve and digital asset stockpile, and growth in stablecoin supply alongside rising onchain value of tokenized real-world assets.
“From that perspective, we believe there hasn’t been a more important year for the industry than 2025. This is the year we began laying the deep caissons to support durable, long-term growth.”
