BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has become one of the most closely watched voices during the sell-off.
* Bitcoin has fallen below $82,000 after two months of continuous decline.
* Analysts disagree on the outlook: some see a looming bottom, others expect more downside before recovery.
* Long-term projections still include the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $200,000, but the timing remains uncertain.
According to him, Bitcoin is approaching the end of the correction, but the market should not expect an immediate rebound. Hayes believes that a true bottom will not form until U.S. equities undergo their own pullback, arguing that fresh liquidity only enters Bitcoin when risk assets across markets reset.
His earlier projection — made when Bitcoin was still hovering around $90,000 — suggested that the price could still slide into the $80,000 to $85,000 range before stabilizing. With Bitcoin now under $82,000, his scenario has played out almost exactly. Despite his caution, Hayes has not abandoned his long-term optimism and continues to see a path for Bitcoin to reach $200,000.
Raoul Pal Sees the Crash as Part of a Familiar Crypto Cycle
Macro analyst Raoul Pal takes a broader historical approach. He argues that the current sell-off is part of a recognizable pattern rather than a sign of a trend reversal. In previous bull markets, sharp corrections have been common and often arrived without clear catalysts. Pal cites past market phases — including the multiple drawdowns during 2016-2017 and the pandemic-era plunge — as evidence that fast, aggressive corrections have repeatedly appeared before new highs.
From this perspective, the recent volatility does not contradict a bullish cycle. Instead, Pal believes that the intensity of the pullback reflects the unwinding of crowded positions, similar to other mid-cycle resets.
Peter Brandt Focuses on the Longest Horizon
Veteran trader Peter Brandt maintains a view that stretches much farther into the future than the others. He recently suggested that Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory could still include a dramatic drop to $58,000 before a major expansion phase. In his model, however, the next explosive rally would not happen soon. He projects that Bitcoin could ultimately rise to $200,000 around the third quarter of 2029, not within the current cycle.
Brandt has reiterated that he continues to hold Bitcoin despite anticipating more downside risk in the near term.
A Unified Price Chart — Diverging Outlooks
Even though Bitcoin’s move below $82,000 has prompted widespread concern, analysts are far from agreeing on what the decline represents. Hayes believes the market is close to a bottom but still needs additional macro stress to complete the reset. Pal views the downturn as a predictable repetition of past cycle corrections. Brandt anticipates an eventual recovery but expects the current cycle to include more pain before long-term upside returns.
For traders, the challenge now is not whether the market is volatile — but which forecast will prove correct as Bitcoin searches for stability.
