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By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
One of the biggest bitcoin
In bitcoin terms, that’s pretty much rock steady. For a look at how unperturbed traders are at the moment, consider Deribit’s BTC Volatility Index (DVOL), a measure of implied volatility. That’s now dropped to 37, its lowest level since late 2023. The broader crypto market is less sanguine, with the CoinDesk 20 (CD20) index down 1.2%.
Bitcoin’s reduced volatility is “perhaps a sign that the market is increasingly confident in its macro-hedge role,” Deribit’s Chief Commercial Officer Jean-David Péquignot told CoinDesk. “Bitcoin’s $105K level is pivotal, with technicals suggesting caution if support fails.”
The ceasefire in the Israel-Iran war has, no doubt, calmed geopolitical tensions for the time being, though that’s far from the only conflict in the world. Investors may also be waiting for directional signs from the economy, with U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) due later today. That’s a report the Federal Reserve keeps a close eye on.
“Emergence of an external catalyst such as an escalation of the NATO-Russia tensions will test the market’s resilience, although the general mid-term upward price trajectory seems to remain in play,” Péquignot said.
Reports that the White House may announce a successor to Fed Chair Jerome Powell in coming months raised fresh questions about the U.S. central bank’s independence, bringing down the greenback: The U.S. dollar index stumbled to a 3-year low.
Equity markets, meantime, have roared back to life. In Asia, shares hit a three-year high on optimism the U.S. and China have reached an agreement over the rare-earth trade, feeding a broader risk-on trend.
Still, the impending U.S. PCE report is dominating today’s agenda. A figure above economists’ estimates could hurt the chances of a July rate cut and undermine the current trend.
“The crypto market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, and the upcoming data will likely determine the short-term direction,” Bitfinix analysts told CoinDesk. “If PCE results come in as expected or lean dovish, crypto assets may see a catch-up rally.” Stay alert!
The CoinDesk Policy & Regulation conference (formerly known as State of Crypto) is a one-day boutique event held in Washington on Sept. 10 that allows general counsels, compliance officers and regulatory executives to meet with public officials responsible for crypto legislation and regulatory oversight. Space is limited. Use code CDB10 for 10% off your registration through July 17.
By Shaurya Malwa
