Analyst argues a “silent recession” has been hiding behind AI-driven S&P 500 gains since 2022.
The crypto fear and greed index dropped to 5 earlier this month, the lowest reading ever recorded. Bitcoin has fallen over 50% from its $126,000 all-time high. But one analyst believes this is exactly the kind of setup that comes before a massive move higher.
Crypto analyst Jesse Eckel laid out a case for why the next crypto bull run could be the biggest one yet, and why AI will be the fuel behind it.
On paper, the economy looks worse than most people realize. Pending home sales are at the lowest level ever recorded. Credit card delinquency has hit 12.7%, the second-highest reading in history after 2008. More than 3 million cars were repossessed in 2025, nearly double what happened during the 2009 crisis.
Eckel calls this a “silent recession” that has been hidden by S&P 500 gains, gains that were almost entirely driven by AI stocks. When priced in gold, both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 have actually been negative since 2022.
“Past bull markets were driven by retail FOMO, by excess and froth in the market in the economy. But this one was basically just institutional structured bid,” he said.
The key shift: business cycle indicators are now crossing back into expansion for the first time since 2022, reaching conditions similar to what existed before the 2013 rally.
Eckel does not think the next rally will come from NFTs or DeFi. He thinks it will come from AI hype, and that the speculation will play out on crypto networks.
His reasoning is simple. Retail investors want to bet on AI, but they cannot make meaningful gains buying Nvidia at a multi-trillion dollar valuation. Small-cap AI tokens give them the kind of outsized upside they are looking for.
“I think the mania and the hype is really going to be around AI… I think that speculation is going to happen on crypto rails because that’s the best place for rampant low-quality things to propagate,” he said.
He compared the setup to the dot-com bubble and argued that because AI is a more transformative technology, the eventual retail mania should be even larger.
Also Read: SEC ETF Deadline, CLARITY Act, New Fed Chair: 5 Events That Will Define Crypto in 2026
Eckel paid $300 for access to Grok 4.2 Heavy, an AI model that has ranked first in live trading competitions. Its Bitcoin price prediction puts BTC at roughly $155,000 by end of 2026 and around $240,000 at its 2027 high.
The model points to ISM expansion, liquidity growth, ETF inflows, and regulatory clarity as the main drivers.
Eckel treats these numbers as directional rather than precise. He expects around 50 days of consolidation before any breakout, which would place a potential move higher around early April.
Read more on Coinpedia – Fintech & Cryptocurreny News Media| Crypto Guide
