Crypto market lows rarely occur when many analysts and traders are declaring one, according to crypto sentiment platform Santiment.
“Be cautious when you see a widespread consensus forming about a specific price bottom,” Santiment warned in a report on Saturday, adding that “true bottoms often form when the majority expects prices to fall further.”
The platform noted that this topic recently gained traction on social media after Bitcoin briefly dipped below $95,000 on Friday amid a broader decline in technology stocks. “This suggests many traders believe the worst is over,” Santiment said, pointing out that such sentiment historically precedes further downside.
Market participants frequently call a bottom when psychological price levels, such as Bitcoin dropping below $100,000, are breached.
Despite these bottom calls, prominent figures like BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee have reiterated forecasts that Bitcoin could still rally to $200,000 or more by year-end.
Santiment also highlighted that the ratio of positive to negative Bitcoin comments has dropped to its lowest level in more than a month.
“As Bitcoin’s price declined, its social dominance climbed above 40%, indicating it is dominating conversations marked by significant fear,” Santiment noted.
The sentiment platform also noted that many traders attributed Bitcoin’s recent price drop to Strategy chairman Michael Saylor selling off his holdings, with social media mentions of “Saylor” spiking sharply as the cryptocurrency fell.
In an interview with CNBC on Friday, Saylor denied reports that the company had been offloading Bitcoin amid the brief price dip.
Meanwhile, Santiment suggested that recent significant outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs could actually be a bullish indicator for Bitcoin’s spot price.
“Large ETF inflows have often coincided with local price tops, while substantial outflows tend to occur near market bottoms, reflecting retail panic,” Santiment explained.
Over the past three trading days, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.17 billion in outflows, according to Farside. On Thursday alone, ETFs saw $866 million in net outflows, marking their second-largest single-day decline on record, following $1.14 billion in outflows on February 25.
