Crypto and broader financial markets fell on Monday as tensions between the US and Iran intensified for a fourth straight week, driving volatile swings in oil prices.
US President Donald Trump said in a Sunday Truth Social post that the US would “hit and obliterate” Iranian power plants—“starting with the biggest one first”—if Iran failed to reopen the Strait within 48 hours.
Iran fired back, warning it would retaliate against any US strikes on its infrastructure by targeting US and Israeli assets in the Gulf. It also threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz entirely, a critical artery for global oil shipments.
Bitcoin (BTC), often promoted as a “safe-haven” asset similar to gold, slipped 1.8% over the past 24 hours to $68,160, after dipping below $67,600 late Sunday.
The decline in Bitcoin triggered a wave of liquidations across the crypto market, with $336.3 million erased in a single day. Nearly $100 million of that came from liquidated long positions on Bitcoin, according to CoinGlass.
Rachael Lucas, an analyst at crypto exchange BTC Markets, told Cointelegraph that digital assets are “moving in lockstep with equities right now, rather than acting as a safe haven,” with sentiment at historic lows. She noted the Fear and Greed Index has plunged deep into “extreme fear” territory, sitting at just 8.
Oil swings, Asian markets slide
Equity markets across Asia also reacted to the rising geopolitical tensions. Australia and New Zealand each fell 0.8%, while Japan dropped more than 4%.
Crude oil prices were highly volatile, briefly surging above $100 per barrel in early Monday trading before slipping to $97.20. Prices later rebounded to around $99.30 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, Brent crude—widely used as a global benchmark—spiked above $114 per barrel before settling below $113.
Lucas said the outlook for crypto markets now largely depends on whether tensions with Iran ease and on upcoming decisions from the US Federal Reserve.
She explained that the jump in Brent prices is fueling inflation concerns, pushing the probability of a Fed rate hike from zero to 12.4% in just one week. “That’s a major macro repricing,” she said, adding that crypto markets will continue to reflect this uncertainty until there’s more clarity.
Lucas added that if tensions with Iran de-escalate, crypto could rebound quickly, as it tends to be among the fastest-moving risk assets. However, she cautioned that the conflict lacks a clear negotiating path or timeline, making any near-term resolution difficult to predict.
On Bitcoin’s price levels, she identified $68,000 as the key immediate support, with $65,800 as the next major level if that fails. On the upside, she said Bitcoin needs to reclaim $71,500 before any meaningful recovery narrative can take hold.
Despite the current downturn, Lucas pointed to strong institutional backing, noting $1.43 billion in net inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds so far this month. She concluded that while sentiment remains weak, the underlying setup for a recovery may be forming—though the timing is still uncertain.
