Long-term holders like Samson Mow say conviction buyers are now dominating the market.
The crypto market could be on the verge of an “unexpected November rally,” according to fresh insights from on-chain analytics platform Santiment. The firm revealed that traders are showing heightened fear — a sentiment that has historically preceded strong market recoveries as coins move from short-term speculators to long-term holders.
Social media discussions reflect the split mood. Bitcoin (BTC), trading around $103,107, has an even mix of bullish and bearish mentions, while Ether (ETH), priced at $3,512, has slightly more positive sentiment. XRP (XRP), currently at $2.51, appears to be facing its most “fearful moment of 2025,” with less than half of online comments expressing optimism.
The broader cryptocurrency market remains subdued as traders shift their focus toward assets more closely tied to traditional economic policies, particularly amid uncertainty surrounding the end of the U.S. government shutdown. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has plunged to 15 out of 100, signaling “extreme fear” — its lowest reading since March.
Joe Consorti, head of Bitcoin growth at Horizon, noted that the current mood mirrors the 2022 bear market period when Bitcoin traded around $18,000. “Sentiment is once again deeply bearish,” Consorti said, citing Glassnode data.
Despite the gloom, Santiment suggested that the growing fear might actually favour patient investors.
“When retail traders turn negative on major assets, it often signals capitulation,”
the firm stated, hinting that whales and long-term holders may soon “scoop up dropped coins” and trigger a price recovery.
Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3, echoed this view, arguing that the ongoing sell-off is mainly driven by “newish buyers” who entered the market over the past 12 to 18 months.
“They’re speculators reacting to headlines. But now, that cohort is nearly depleted — conviction holders are taking control.”
Mow believes this rotation marks a healthy transition for the market. “This is the best-case scenario,” he added. “2026 is going to be a great year. Plan accordingly.”
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