The crypto market is experiencing a phase of moderate bull momentum, primarily supported by stable institutional demand focused on large-cap assets. According to Thomas Perfumo, Global Head of Strategy at Kraken, the current context is characterized by steady growth, but lacking the speculative excesses that marked previous market peaks.
The main forces influencing the sector are linked to macroeconomic factors, such as uncertainties about US policy, tensions in the Middle East, and issues related to tariffs. However, Perfumo emphasizes that these elements seem to have already been absorbed by market prices, reducing the likelihood of sudden negative shocks in the short term.
Unlike previous bullish cycles, the current market does not show signs of an imminent peak. In fact, widespread speculative excesses and the rapid sequences of new all-time highs (ATH) that characterized the final stages of previous bull markets are missing. In the last month, for example, only four new ATHs have been recorded, a figure significantly lower than the 15-20 that usually accompany periods of maximum enthusiasm.
Another key indicator is the bitcoin dominance, which remains high, around 60%. In past cycles, this percentage tended to drop between 30% and 40% when capital shifted from major cryptocurrencies to altcoin. The current predominance of bitcoin suggests that the market has not yet reached the capital rotation phase typical of cycle peaks.
In the long term, the true driver of growth seems to be the mainstream adoption of criptovalute, rather than pure speculation. Various sectors are showing concrete signs of expansion and maturity, including stablecoin, DeFi, NFT, prediction markets, and the tokenization of traditional assets.
Stablecoins continue to represent a benchmark for stability in the sector, while decentralized finance (DeFi) offers innovative solutions for managing and moving capital without intermediaries. NFTs are expanding the concept of digital ownership, involving artists, collectors, and investors worldwide.
Prediction markets are experiencing a phase of growth, thanks to their decentralized nature that allows for global participation without barriers. An emblematic figure concerns the total value of xStocks, which has exceeded 100 million dollars, tripling in just the month of July 2025. This result highlights how the tokenization of traditional assets is becoming an increasingly concrete and relevant reality.
The global economic context, despite uncertainties, continues to support risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. The absence of euphoria signals typical of the end of bull cycles, combined with the growing utility and adoption of blockchain technologies, suggests that the market still has room for growth.
Institutional demand, focused on large-cap assets, represents a solid foundation for the continuation of the bull cycle. At the same time, the progressive adoption of blockchain-based solutions in sectors such as finance, digital art, and predictive markets offers new opportunities for development and consolidation.
In summary, the cryptocurrency market is in a phase of sustained growth, but without the excesses that preceded the sharper corrections of the past. Bitcoin dominance remains high, institutional demand is stable, and innovative sectors like DeFi, NFT, and tokenization are showing signs of maturity.
According to Thomas Perfumo of Kraken, the current cycle still has room to expand, supported by a favorable global context and the absence of end-of-cycle euphoria signals. The real challenge, and at the same time opportunity, will be the sector’s ability to consolidate its utility and attract increasingly widespread and conscious adoption.
