Information Summary:
Following the release of the US CPI data, US short-term interest rate futures fell, as traders increased their bets on a Fed rate cut, predicting a greater than 80% probability of a 25 basis point cut at the September 17th meeting. Spot gold briefly surged to a high of 3354 before falling sharply, hitting a low near 3331 and currently fluctuating around 3350.
It is important to note that the core CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year in July, slightly exceeding expectations. However, Fed Chairman Powell has repeatedly stated that policymakers are focusing on 12-month inflation. So, this is not a good sign.
Market Analysis:
Currently, gold remains range-bound. Despite positive CPI data, the overall downward trend under pressure remains unchanged, with upward pressure still prevailing. Therefore, the current range does not show a unilateral strengthening trend, and the overall trading strategy remains range-bound.
Looking at the hourly chart, the high hasn’t been renewed, but the downside low has been broken, indicating overall weakness. Short-term bearish sentiment can be seen around 3360, with support at 3330. If this level is broken, adjust your strategy based on market conditions.
Trading Strategy:
Short around 3360, stop loss at 3370, profit range 3340-3330-3320.
Long around 3330, stop loss at 3320, profit range 3350-3360.
