Angela Rayner’s failure to get proper tax advice on her house in Hove could be one of those ‘butterfly effect’ moments, where a seemingly trivial incident (like the flap of a butterfly’s wings) sets off a chain of events with precipitous consequences. It could well lead to Keir Starmer’s removal as Labour leader.
This is Streeting’s best chance of ever becoming party leader
Labour is not unfamiliar with butterfly moments. In 2012, the Labour MP for Falkirk, Eric Joyce, headbutted a Conservative MP in Strangers’ Bar in Parliament, after growling, ‘There are too many fucking Tories in here’. The internal process to select Joyce’s parliamentary successor was so flawed that it encouraged Labour leader Ed Miliband to rewrite the rules for electing his successor, which then inadvertently opened the door to Jeremy Corbyn.
Although there have been some minor modifications, Labour still fundamentally has the same rules for electing its leader and deputy leader as a result. One fifth of Labour MPs must nominate a candidate. They must secure a small number of nominations from unions, affiliates, and/or constituency parties, which is mostly a formality. Then, party members choose the leader from these nominees.
Less commented on, but even more importantly for Starmer, the rules are basically the same for removing an incumbent leader. Any MP who can muster the support of 20 per cent of Labour MPs can force a contest that must be decided by party members, not by MPs.
Since Miliband’s rules came into effect a decade ago, Labour has already seen one leadership challenge. In 2016, Jeremy Corbyn was challenged by Owen Smith for the sin of not being pro-EU enough in the referendum. The saviour of the Corbyn leadership was the party membership. Corbyn’s opponents had underestimated members’ loyalty to Corbyn. Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell later quipped, ‘as plotters they were fucking useless’.
Keir Starmer is in the opposite position to Corbyn. Starmer’s approval among Labour members is underwater (at -9). In a Survation poll of Labour members last month, before the reshuffle, only Rachel Reeves and Liz Kendall were less popular among the Labour membership. Labour members are mostly ‘soft left’ and are disappointed by the Labour government’s policies on welfare cuts and stricter immigration controls.
In almost any contest before the Labour membership, I am confident that, as things stand, Keir Starmer would lose. Just one in five Labour MPs need to organise around a challenger, and Starmer could be taken out as Labour leader.
Which means the downfall of Angela Rayner puts Keir Starmer in a dangerous position. The right of the party are fed up with him. He was their vehicle to power, and it worked. Starmer has completed a fierce campaign of deCorbynification, led Labour into government and, crucially, helped Labour right-wingers win parliamentary seats. But the Labour right like a winner, and with Labour in the polls at 20 per cent and Starmer with one of the worst approval ratings of any leader in the west, they are ready to dump him.
The prince across the water for the Labour right is Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary. Although at 42 he is much younger than Starmer, he has much more experience with the Labour party. He is also a better communicator and more instinctively political than Starmer.
As things stand, Streeting could defeat Starmer, but only if there was no third candidate from the ‘soft left’. For months, Streeting’s main barrier had been Angela Rayner. In a leadership competition, Rayner would have had no difficulty in reaching the required nominations to join the fray. In a Starmer versus Streeting versus Rayner contest, Rayner wins.
She is now gone. The other main, viable candidate from the ‘soft left’, Andy Burnham, is currently ineligible because he is not a Member of Parliament. There are others, like Ed Miliband or Lisa Nandy, but they are damaged goods.
That means, at least for the time being, Wes Streeting might just be able to concoct a straightforward Starmer versus Streeting fight. Due to some ambiguity in the rule book, with the connivance of his friends on the National Executive Committee, after lining up 80 MPs in advance, Streeting could make the period of time for others to collect nominations as short as possible to exclude any other challengers. This is far from guaranteed, but it is Streeting’s best chance of ever becoming party leader.
Many people point to the fact that Streeting’s seat is marginal as a reason why he would not stand for leader. In fact, the logic suggests the opposite. If Streeting waits to stand for leader once there is a vacancy – i.e. after an election defeat – there are two serious problems for him.
One, he might not be an MP anymore and, therefore, would be ineligible. Two, even if he did hold onto his seat, he’d surely lose a post-election contest because by that point Burnham or another viable ‘soft left’ candidate, perhaps even a rehabilitated Rayner, would have been elected.
The next few months will therefore be critical for Streeting. He has a window in which to move against Starmer. Even if Streeting is not the one to benefit, the deputy leadership contest might give MPs a better understanding of the Labour rule book and, therefore, a sense of their own power.
Just as the punchy Eric Joyce (‘staggers like a butterfly and stings like a bee’) helped propel Jeremy Corbyn into the Labour leadership, in her carelessness with her tax affairs, Angela Rayner might well be the ‘Madam Butterfly’ who brings Wes Streeting into Downing Street.
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