Bitcoin began the third week of March attempting to break higher after recently climbing to nearly $75,000.
- Bitcoin price action delivered a strong weekly close, but analysts say bulls still have significant work to do to confirm a sustained breakout.
- Some market observers warn that the broader bear market trend may still be intact, especially following the appearance of a recent death cross in technical indicators.
- At the same time, macroeconomic conditions could trigger additional volatility, with investors closely watching the upcoming interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve.
- Meanwhile, recent weakness in Gold has reignited debate over whether capital may rotate into Bitcoin as investors reassess alternative stores of value.
- Several market indicators are also prompting analysts to reconsider Bitcoin’s near-term price outlook and the strength of any potential recovery.
Traders remain cautious even as Bitcoin bulls attempt to push prices higher, with strong selling pressure emerging near the $75,000 level.
Buyers stepped in ahead of the weekly close, helping Bitcoin climb to around $74,425, marking its highest level in roughly six weeks.
However, data from TradingView shows that as the traditional finance (TradFi) trading week begins, Bitcoin is still holding above the $70,000 mark, suggesting that bulls are trying to maintain key support despite ongoing resistance.
The strong weekly close allowed Bitcoin to reclaim several key technical levels on the BTC/USD chart, including the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) near $68,300 and its 2021 all-time high around $69,400.
The price has also moved back above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since mid-January, signaling improving short-term momentum.
Commenting on the move, independent analyst Filbfilb said that consistent buying on dips suggests the market could continue pushing higher. In a post on his Telegram channel, he noted that reclaiming the 50-day moving average could lead to a further short squeeze and upward price pressure.
Bulls’ next target, trader CrypNuevo and others say, is the $75,000 zone — home to major seller interest.
Analyst CrypNuevo warned that any shift in the macro environment suggesting the end of the Israel–Iran conflict could trigger a classic “pump-and-dump” scenario, where markets initially rally before quickly reversing and wiping out most of the gains, potentially trapping late long positions.
Market sentiment remained largely cautious, with many traders maintaining a skeptical outlook. Trader Killa said there was little reason to abandon a bearish stance despite the recent price strength.
Trader and analyst Mark Cullen said Bitcoin still needs to reclaim a key technical level before confirming further upside, pointing to the April 2025 swing low near $75,000 as an important threshold.
In a post to followers on X, Cullen warned that a breakdown below $71,000 could send the market back toward the lower end of its current trading range.
“Lose 71K now and range lows are coming!” he cautioned.
BTC death cross continues to cast a shadow over price outlook
As previously reported, the long-term market outlook for Bitcoin remains broadly optimistic, though some analysts still expect the possibility of new macro lows before a sustained recovery takes hold.
Market commentators say Bitcoin must show clearer signs of strength before its latest rebound can be considered reliable.
Last week, Keith Alan, co-founder of trading analytics platform Material Indicators, pointed to a recent death cross on the BTC/USD weekly chart as a key signal suggesting the market could revisit lower support levels.
In a video analysis, Alan said that despite recent gains, the broader trend may still be bearish.
“As we sit right now on this very day, we are still in a bear market, and this death cross specifically gives me more confidence in the idea that price is likely, at a macro level, to at least go back and test support before a breakout here.”
The potential support levels could lie around the local range lows near $60,000, he suggested, or even the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) around $58,900. A move to the latter would create a new lower low, a pattern that historically can open the door to further downside.
Keith Alan of Material Indicators added that price could continue moving sideways for some time but warned traders not to overlook the broader technical structure.
He emphasized that the 200-week moving average remains a crucial level to watch, as it has historically acted as a major support zone for Bitcoin.
He added that the current outlook could shift if shorter time frames begin showing a reversal, particularly with a “decisive uptick” in the 21-day simple moving average (SMA).
Macro volatility risks mount for Bitcoin
Several potential catalysts are lining up for a volatile week in the macro landscape.
Alongside geopolitical tensions linked to the Israel–Iran conflict and broader global uncertainty, concerns about rising inflation in the United States have resurfaced as oil prices climb.
At the same time, markets are closely watching the next interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve, which could significantly influence sentiment across risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Markets remain focused on developments in the global oil trade, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz. Over the weekend, Donald Trump signaled that the blockade affecting the waterway could potentially ease.
In a post on Truth Social, Trump said that countries relying on oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz should help ensure the route remains open.
He added that the United States would coordinate with those nations to make sure operations move “quickly, smoothly, and well.”
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude began the week trading above the $100 level, while Bitcoin moved higher alongside rising US stock futures as traditional finance (TradFi) markets reopened.
Market observers noted that several major macro events are converging in the same week. In a post on X, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter highlighted the unusual overlap of geopolitical tensions, economic data releases and monetary policy decisions.
“We now have the Iran war, inflation data, and a Fed meeting all in the same week,” the group wrote.
Fresh inflation signals are also expected soon, starting with the latest Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report from the Institute for Supply Management, scheduled for release on Monday.
The indicator currently suggests that manufacturing activity in the United States has returned to expansion territory, and February’s reading previously coincided with a bullish reaction in Bitcoin’s price.
Commenting on rising energy costs, The Kobeissi Letter warned that if oil prices stay elevated, manufacturers may be forced to pass higher costs on to retailers and consumers.
“The manufacturing recovery is alive, but the inflation threat seems to be back.”
Elsewhere, Wednesday will bring both the next interest-rate decision from the Federal Reserve and the latest release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), offering further clues about inflation trends in the United States as tensions in the Middle East continue.
As previously reported, rising oil prices have already sparked warnings that inflation could stage a significant rebound in the months ahead.
Gold cools while Bitcoin rebounds
With oil gradually targeting previous highs above $120, market participants are increasingly watching whether Bitcoin can begin attracting capital that traditionally flows into Gold during periods of uncertainty.
So far, that shift has yet to occur. Over the past six months, gold has repeatedly broken to new highs while the BTC/USD pair has struggled, touching multi-year lows during the same period.
Despite the conflict involving Iran creating conditions that typically boost safe-haven demand, gold’s recent performance has been relatively subdued.
In his latest Commodity Report newsletter, analyst Lukas Kuemmerle noted that gold has been consolidating for the past two weeks, even though escalating geopolitical tensions would normally push prices higher.
“The metal’s muted reaction has left many market participants puzzled.”
Lukas Kuemmerle described Gold’s performance during military conflicts as “mixed,” suggesting that oil may serve as a more direct hedge during geopolitical crises.
He explained that gold typically provides protection not from the conflict itself but from its broader financial consequences.
“Gold offers less protection against the conflict itself, but rather against its monetary and financial side effects — think inflationary pressure, currency devaluation, or fiscal dislocations,” he said.
Gold prices against the XAU/USD pair slipped below the $5,000 level at the start of the week, reaching their lowest point since mid-February. When measured against Bitcoin, gold also fell to levels last seen on Feb. 5.
Over the weekend, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe pointed to a developing bullish divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) for the BTC/XAU pair.
Speaking to followers on X, he noted that the weekly RSI remains in oversold territory, which historically has coincided with market bottoms and trend reversals.
“The weekly RSI remains to be in the oversold territory. Historically, especially in 2015, 2018 and 2022, this has provided a signal that the markets are bottoming and that there’s a reversal happening,” he said.
Van de Poppe added that the daily chart is already hinting at a potential shift, after previously predicting that capital could rotate from gold into Bitcoin.
“I would assume we’ll see a stronger breakout upwards occur in the coming week, as this is the first time it’s breaking above the 21-day moving average since the breakdown in October,” he added, referring to the pair’s 21-day SMA trend line.
Strongest bullish signals in months?
Amid ongoing discussion about capital flows, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant says several indicators suggest a broader recovery may be forming for Bitcoin.
According to the firm, inflows to both crypto exchanges and US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are beginning to show increasingly bullish patterns, while stablecoin liquidity is rising, a factor often linked to expanding market activity.
In a QuickTake blog post on Monday, CryptoQuant contributor Amr Taha said multiple metrics are showing unusual strength.
“Three different charts are showing activity we haven’t seen in weeks or even months,” he wrote.
Taha also highlighted a sharp decline in transfers from both retail and whale wallets to the exchange Binance over rolling 30-day periods. Whale inflows, for example, dropped from about $8.8 billion to $4.5 billion during the first two weeks of March.
He noted that falling exchange inflows have historically helped reduce selling pressure, as fewer coins are moved to spot markets where they could be sold.
At the same time, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded net inflows on every trading day since March 9, signaling steady institutional demand.
According to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, these consistent inflows suggest that large investors are continuing to accumulate Bitcoin.
“Positive ETF flows reflect direct BTC buying pressure, reinforcing market support from institutional investors,” the firm noted.
On March 11, a $1 billion mint of the largest stablecoin, Tether (USDT), was issued on the Tron network, marking a notable liquidity injection into the crypto market.
According to Amr Taha of CryptoQuant, the previous mint of the same size occurred on Feb. 6, making the March 11 issuance the first major liquidity expansion in more than a month.
“The creation of new USDT can signal fresh capital entering the market, potentially increasing available liquidity for trading activity.”
