Coinbase analysts say that the cryptocurrency market is about to undergo a significant change and that a full-scale altcoin season may be on the way. As Bitcoin’s market share drops and the market capitalization of altcoins climbs, conditions in the market are becoming more favorable for altcoins to outperform Bitcoin.
This phase is sometimes called “altseason.” This essay looks at the reasons for this prediction and what its implications are for investors.
Bitcoin’s market share has dropped from 65% to 59%, a 6% dip that shows money is moving from Bitcoin to other currencies. This drop is a significant sign that an altseason might be coming, as it indicates that investors are putting their money into different cryptocurrencies.
Historically, a sliding Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) chart, which just had its most significant decline since November 2024, has come before times when altcoins did better than Bitcoin. Michael Van Poppe from MN Capital and other analysts have pointed out bearish divergences in BTC.D, which makes an altcoin rally more likely.
The TOTAL2 figure, which tracks the market value of altcoins (not including Bitcoin), shows that it has risen by more than 50% since early July 2025, hitting $1.4 trillion. This breakout above a downtrend line that has been in place since January 2025, along with a positive break of structure on the daily chart, shows that momentum is high.
If the price surpasses the $1.25 trillion resistance mark, it could indicate that the uptrend will continue, as altcoin prices are forming higher lows and highs. This growth shows that more people are interested in altcoins like Ether, XRP, and Solana. These coins have gained 44.3%, 20.6%, and 22% in the last week, whereas Bitcoin has only gained 10%.
People shifting their money from Bitcoin to other coins triggered altcoin seasons in the past. However, Coinbase researchers assert that stablecoin liquidity plays a significant role this time around. The volume of altcoin trading versus stablecoin and fiat pairs has gone up, which is a sign of long-term market growth.
This trend is also being driven by institutional investment, especially in Ethereum. The SEC’s support for Ethereum staking and the success of the Pectra upgrade have made people more confident, and Ether has broken its long-term downturn. Posts on X also say that a possible rate decrease by the Federal Reserve in September could bring in more retail investors, which would boost altcoin momentum.
The Altcoin Season Index is now at 73%. This means that 75% of the top 50 coins have outperformed Bitcoin over the past 90 days. This sudden rise makes it look like the market is about to enter a full altseason.
Analysts, on the other hand, say that even while technical indications look promising, it’s not certain yet because the index hasn’t crossed the critical line yet. Investors should closely monitor the liquidity of stablecoins and the dominance of Bitcoin to make informed decisions.
Coinbase’s research suggests that an altcoin season could be on the way because Bitcoin’s dominance is falling, the altcoin market cap is rising, and stablecoin liquidity is rising.
While the Altcoin Season Index is approaching 75%, investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research. Institutional interest and more explicit rules are driving the market’s shift toward altcoins, indicating intriguing future potential.
