Coinbase launches Predict, a regulated event trading platform, expanding into prediction markets across politics, sports, crypto, and culture.
Coinbase has launched Coinbase Predict, a new event-based trading platform, for users across all 50 U.S. states. The feature enables trading on results associated with politics, sports, crypto exchange, and cultural events. Notably, the rollout comes after previous regulatory scrutiny relating to unlicensed sports contracts in Nevada.
In the past, the Nevada Gaming Control Board had filed a civil lawsuit against Coinbase, but only in 2024. Regulators alleged the exchange sold sports betting contracts with no state license. However, Coinbase said it was exploring compliant frameworks. As a result, the new launch represents a strategic and regulatory reset.
Coinbase Predict is already built into the main Coinbase application. Therefore, users can trade on events in addition to crypto, equities, and cash balances. The platform allows participation in elections, macroeconomic indicators, sports events, and cultural milestones through simple contracts.
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Importantly, Coinbase developed the platform with Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market operator. The Commodities Futures Trading Commission regulates Kalshi. As a result, Coinbase Predict is not like offshore prediction platforms that are not supervised by federal authorities.
The partnership ensures full compliance with the federal. Moreover, Coinbase stressed that Predict is available nationwide without geographic constraints. This widespread availability is a significant step forward from previous limited prediction market offerings.
Users bet on “Yes” or “No” contracts based on certain events. Each contract is priced within a price range of $0 to $1. Therefore, prices are the market’s implied chance of an outcome occurring within a specified timeframe.
The minimum size of the trade on Coinbase Predict is $1. Consequently, the platform is aimed at retail participants who look for low-cost exposure. Trades can be funded with U.S. dollars or USDC stored in existing Coinbase accounts, providing onboarding without problems.
All positions are visible within a consolidated interface within the Coinbase app. As a result, the users manage the crypto assets, cash accounts, equities, and contracts of the events together. This structure fits in with Coinbase’s overall product consolidation strategy.
From a strategic point of view, the launch gives backing to CEO Brian Armstrong’s “Everything Exchange” vision for 2026. The strategy wants to integrate crypto, equities, commodities, and alternative instruments on a single global platform. Therefore, prediction markets are an important diversification lever.
Industry estimates put the global prediction market sector at $37 billion. Consequently, Coinbase is looking to gain new revenue streams beyond the traditional crypto trading fees. Event-based trading also has a tendency to create consistent engagement during major news cycles.
However, regulatory oversight is at the heart of Coinbase’s approach. By partnering with a CFTC-regulated partner, the company aims to reduce compliance risks. This framework may also have the effect of favourably positioning Coinbase in comparison to other companies that offer the same products offshore.
Overall, Coinbase Predict is a calculated move towards other financial markets. The move is a combination of regulated innovation and broader ambitions for the platform. Therefore, the launch may alter the way the U.S. user base accesses prediction-based financial products in a compliant ecosystem.
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