Even with a 44% gain in June, shares have further to run if the market remains bullish on Circle Internet Group, according to Citizens JMP Securities.
Coinbase is the top performer in the S&P 500 in June, boosted by positive regulatory updates, product launches and, of course, its very inclusion in the benchmark stock index at the end of May.
The crypto exchange’s outperformance in the S&P 500 extends back to the April 8 market low, just after President Donald Trump’s initial sweeping tariffs announcement sent stocks sinking.
Coinbase is now on pace for its third straight monthly gain, 44% in June alone, and its first three-month rally since the end of 2023. On Thursday, the stock hit its highest level since the day of its initial public offering in 2021.
“The S&P 500 inclusion, the Senate’s passage of the GENIUS Act and very strong performance of Circle negated the false narratives for Coinbase and people are waking up,” Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau told CNBC.
“The two things holding Coinbase back were the issues of fee compression — it hasn’t happened and in fact, Coinbase has been generating positive earnings consistently, which is why they were included in the S&P 500 — and regulatory uncertainty,” he said. “Many people don’t believe there will be any consensus coming out of Congress … the fact is we’re seeing the passage of the GENIUS Act.”
The GENIUS Act establishes the first federal framework for dollar-pegged stablecoins, granting sweeping authority to the Department of Treasury and opening the door to banks, fintechs, and retailers.
Even with Coinbase’s 44% run this month, the stock has room to appreciate further, according to Devin Ryan, head of financial technology research at Citizens JMP Securities. He said the market isn’t fully connecting the dots around Coinbase’s close relationship with Circle Internet Group. Circle debuted on the New York Stock Exchange June 5 and has soared more than 500% since.
According to a revenue share agreement, Coinbase keeps 100% of the revenue generated on all USDC held on Coinbase, plus nearly 50% of all other USDC revenues, “which is 99% of Circle’s current revenue,” Ryan said.
USDC is a Circle-issued stablecoin, which are a subset of cryptocurrencies pegged to the value of real-world assets. About 99% of all stablecoins are tethered to the price of the U.S. dollar.
“Yet, Coinbase doesn’t incur any of the operating costs borne by Circle,” Ryan said. “If the market is right on the current bullish view for Circle, Coinbase is another way to play that — and with the financial connection described, it would seem there’s a lot more value left in Coinbase.”
Coinbase, whose core business is crypto trading, has been expanding its suite of crypto services over the past several quarters to include areas like custody, staking, wallet services and stablecoins.
This month, the company beefed up its subscription plan by offering it with its first crypto-backed credit card in partnership with American Express. It also introduced a partnership with Shopify and debuted a stablecoin payments service for e-commerce. JPMorgan also partnered with the crypto company to launch its own version of a stablecoin, which it’s calling a “deposit token” on Coinbase’s in-house built blockchain, Base.
“There’s clearly a sentiment trade occurring in crypto as institutional investors are looking at the space, many for the first time, and want to express a positive view on crypto evolving from a speculative asset class to one of utility — with legislative clarity as the key catalyst — and Coinbase is the most direct way to invest in that thesis,” Ryan said.
If there’s one concern, it’s in trading volume, said Oppenheimer’s Lau. The average daily volume of crypto transactions on the Coinbase platform has been trending lower since April, which could be a risk for the company and other crypto trading providers heading into the second half of the year.
The analyst is optimistic the regulatory outlook can turn that around though, specifically if the industry gets market structure legislation on top of stablecoin legislation.
“If the GENIUS Act brought us to ‘stablecoin summer’ then I believe that the eventual passage of the CLARITY Act can bring us into altcoin summer,” Lau said. “So at the end of this year, I do see another catalyst that can reverse this trend because there will be animal spirits, people will be buying altcoins like crazy if we get past the market structure bill.”
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