Institutional futures remain cautious amid modest cut expectations.
CME’s FedWatch Tool indicates a 22.1% probability for a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January, with a 77.9% likelihood of maintaining the current rate.
These probabilities reflect market expectations and could influence crypto markets by impacting institutional risk appetite and liquidity, as observed in speculative interest in Bitcoin and Ethereum.
“The market is pricing a ~22.1% probability of a 25 bp cut and ~77.9% probability of ‘no change’ for the January 2026 FOMC meeting.” — CME Group
Bitcoin’s price behavior aligns with macroeconomic shifts. As of December 20, 2025, Bitcoin traded at $88,164.83 USD, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.27% in the last day according to CoinMarketCap. The market cap stands at formatNumber(1760187847393, 2) while the 24-hour trading volume has dropped significantly. Earlier periods of substantial changes in FedWatch probabilities have historically influenced sharp trades in linked assets such as BTC and ETH, aligning with speculative forecasts.
“The market is pricing a ~22.1% probability of a 25 bp cut and ~77.9% probability of ‘no change’ for the January 2026 FOMC meeting.” — CME Group
Did you know? Unprecedented shifts in FedWatch probabilities during the 2020 COVID crisis led to substantial crypto rallies as markets anticipated rate changes, showcasing the tool’s significant impact on market behavior.
Coincu’s research pegs Fed’s impact on crypto heavily on regulatory settings and liquidity movement. Historical patterns show that flexibility in financial policies often enhances market dynamics, cocooning crypto space against macroeconomic adversities. Fed’s impact on crypto can vary based on specific economic conditions.
Coincu’s research pegs Fed’s impact on crypto heavily on regulatory settings and liquidity movement. Historical patterns show that flexibility in financial policies often enhances market dynamics, cocooning crypto space against macroeconomic adversities. Fed’s impact on crypto can vary based on specific economic conditions.
