Investing.com – Compass Point upgraded Circle Internet Group (NYSE:CRCL) from Sell to Neutral on Thursday, while reducing its price target to $60.00 from $75.00. The new target aligns closely with InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment, which suggests the stock is currently fairly valued after falling nearly 60% over the past six months.
The research firm noted that Circle Internet Group is now trading on crypto beta, with a 0.66 correlation with Ethereum since the cryptocurrency market’s October 10th deleveraging event. This correlation helps explain why CRCL is currently trading near its 52-week low of $64, far below its high of $298.99.
Compass Point expects Circle shares to continue trading based on cryptocurrency sentiment in the first half of 2026, with fewer idiosyncratic drivers that might help the company de-correlate from crypto prices.
The firm pointed out that over 40% of USDC supply is held in DeFi applications while at least 35% is held on crypto exchanges, meaning that more than 75% of USDC is used for speculative activity tied to cryptocurrency cycles.
While Circle Internet Group could eventually generate income from less cyclical use cases, Compass Point believes it might take years before the company’s revenue decouples from cryptocurrency market cycles.
In other recent news, Circle Internet Group has been the subject of several significant developments. Mizuho upgraded Circle Internet Group’s stock rating from Underperform to Neutral, citing growth in USDC stablecoin usage on platforms like Polymarket. The firm set a price target of $77.00, reflecting a change in their previous concerns about the company’s distribution and competition. Additionally, Tiger Securities adjusted its price target for Circle Internet Group to $85 from $100, while maintaining a Hold rating ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report. This adjustment comes as the average USDC stablecoin circulation increased 12% quarter-over-quarter, reaching $76.3 billion in Q4 2025. H.C. Wainwright also initiated coverage on Circle Internet Group with a Neutral rating and an $85.00 price target, noting the company’s strong position in the stablecoin market. Furthermore, the White House plans to meet with banking and cryptocurrency industry executives, including Circle Internet, to discuss stalled crypto legislation. This meeting aims to address conflicts between the banking and crypto sectors, focusing on stablecoin holdings.
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